As we know, August really starts to heat up for tropical systems. Here is a new wave off Africa. This one may or may not develop,(that about covers all the bases), but it's in keeping with mets prediction for a big upswing in August. Here is the five day graphic so far: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
From flhurricane.com: " An active portion of the monsoon trof located in the east-central Tropical Atlantic and associated with a tropical wave has been showing some signs of developing one or two areas of low pressure that models increasingly suggest will interact with an additional wave, or waves plural, coming off of Africa later this week and/or next. Another consideration is an expected positive phase of both the MJO and CCKW crossing the Atlantic as we head into August. Environmental conditions are already marginally favorable for development, and looked at from 50,000', this highlighted region is likely to become somewhat more favorable for tropical cyclone formation over the next three to ten days, and NHC does give it a 30% chance of development into a tropical cyclone within the next five (by early August), which could be conservative. "
Then he realized that June 2013 was Surfdogg's join date and not his DOB and shut it down... I have a strong feeling that we will get something cooking over the next 2 weeks. Water temps have been super high, so hopefully something will take a perfect track.
Going with that, and hoping you're correcto nynj. btw, which wackadoodle troll is the new/old/banned humourless jagoff SBB?
"While the two low to mid level circulations located within this broad area of low pressure have sustained, inhibitive influences of large scale atmospheric waves are likely to keep development in check for at least another 24 to 72 hours, and unsurprisingly, NHC 5 day odds have actually dropped back down to 20% as of this morning, July 28. By the middle of next week, the environment in the central to eastern Atlantic is still forecast to be somewhat favorable for development, while at the same time an additional wave is likely to converge with this feature. Lots of time to watch out here. "---flhurricane.com
Once again, for the "global warming" enthusiasts, from NHC: For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. I thought summers were to be unabated gigantic storms (so says hero Al Bore); I thought New York was thus to be under 12 ft of water, by 2012 (so said hero Al Bore). Nope, not even a mild tropical disturbance. In colder decades, (before warming panic), we had plenty of hurricanes by end of July, maybe not major ones, but solid swell producers. Toodle le doo!!
"Disturbance 1: 0% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 8:00 am EDT Sat Jul 29 2017 ... A tropical wave that recently moved over the Cabo Verde Islands is moving westward at 10 to 15 mph. Some development of this system is possible next week while the wave moves across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent."
As of 8:00 am EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 ... A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this broad disturbance is possible over the next several days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. The flhurricane guys don't think this will develop into anything.
