Vigorous Wave coming off Africa

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=99&av=4

This shows hope for Barry

 

From flhurricane.com:

"
Re: Invest 99L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
#97802 - Fri Aug 04 2017 11:34 AM

!2Z GFS starting to roll in, starts off weaker than the last run, but recovers at 24 hours. (Yesterday's 12Z run already had it as a Tropical storm right now, and obviously that didn't happen)

By 48 hours, the position is about the same as the 6z run, but its a bit weaker. TD/tS vs hurricane.

by 96 hours it moves faster and a bit further south of the earlier run, this appears to be closer to the Euro run, although it is a strong Tropical Storm at this point. This run seems more realistic toward actual conditions than the prior run.

At 120 hours out it is much further southwest than the earlier run, and nearing the northern leeward islands, tropical storm strength.

Near/over St. Johns and Barbuda in the Leewards on Thursday morning as a Tropical Storm then moves over/near St. Kitts, toward the Virgin Islands.

Tropical Storm landfall on Puerto Rico Thursday night, then moves toward Hispaniola, by friday night it's over Haiti and getting torn apart. By Saturday morning the remains are over Guantanamo in Cuba.

This is closer to the Euro run and much weaker (never gains hurricane strength) and stays weak.

 

Ha! Surfer humor

 

Disturbance 1: 50% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 2:00 am EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...
Showers and thunderstorms extending from the Cabo Verde Islands
southwestward across the tropical Atlantic are associated with an
elongated area of low pressure. This system remains poorly
organized, but environmental conditions are expected to become a
little more favorable for this system to consolidate, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while it moves toward the
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

Flhurricane.com:

"
18Z GFS back to something.

Strenghtens to a TS around Monday/Tuesday in the Atlanta, weakens a bit as it gets closer to the Leewards, goes over Barbuda Late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, barely misses Puerto Rico to the north on Friday, then stays just north of Hispaniola, Stays north of Cuba,

Goes over the middle Florida Keys on Sunday August 13th as a major hurricane, ,rides just offshore of the west coast of Florida as a major hurricane. Landfall near Panama City, FL on August 14th, as a major hurricane, then up through Alabama/Georgia and Eastern Tennessee"

 

Flhurricane.com

"
Overnight model runs show a much weaker system, GFS an Euro included, the Euro does not develop 99L at all, while the GFS does develop a tropical storm that crosses the leewards Wednesday Morning then weakens and eventually dissipates over Hispaniola. The NHC is slowly dropping chances for development based on the Euro's persistence in not developing the system.

The storm's forward motion has been faster than earlier GFS model runs showed."

This current outlook is less scary for sure.