This invest is in the east Caribbean and bears watching, to see if it develops...it might could cross over the Yucatán and into the gulf.
Please make it so, the last few you've sent us have worked out well. But its been a lake and we're due
Disturbance 2: 20% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 2:00 am EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 ... A strong tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by Sunday over the western Caribbean Sea and by early next week over the Bay of Campeche while the disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. This system could produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao tonight and Friday. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Disturbance 2: 20% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 8:00 am EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 ... A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the central and eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche through the middle of next week, where environmental conditions appear conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Disturbance 2: 20% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 2:00 am EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ... A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the south-central Caribbean Sea. The wave is moving westward at 15 mph and development, if any, during the next day or two will likely to be slow. Conditions could become a little more favorable for tropical cyclone formation early next week if the disturbance moves over the southern Bay of Campeche. There is also a possibility that the wave moves over Central America, and in that case no development is anticipated. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
As of 2:00 am EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 ... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea have changed little. However, further development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Monday or Tuesday. Even if formation does not occur before the system reaches the Yucatan peninsula, a tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the Bay of Campeche by midweek. Development would likely not occur if the system moves inland over Central America and southeastern Mexico and does not re-emerge over water. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. Interests along the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Hello TS Franklin Flhurricane.com: "Ptnl SEVEN has become Tropical Storm Franklin, the sixth named storm, and seventh tropical cyclone of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Only four other years have had six Named Storms by this date in the Atlantic basin: 1936, 1959, 2005 and 2012. (Cr. Philip Klotzbach) "
Welcome! "The NHC currently gives 99L a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. The disturbance is currently expected to track to the north of the Caribbean and NE of the Bahamas, though there will be a little extra uncertainty in this forecast while a closed low does not exist along the wave axis."
