Flhurricane.com: " A vigorous tropical wave that has emerged off the coast of western Africa is attempting to mere with an active Monsoon Trof, and is poised to become a strong tropical low or tropical cyclone while tracking west to west-northwest at a fairly low latitude. This feature has the backing of a wide array of TC genesis models, which is not surprising given its vigor, and the favorable environment it is in, and will likely continue to be in for the better part of its voyage west. This wave has the potential to become a serious hurricane and should be monitored closely. While not yet Invest tagged at the time of this entry, it will likely be assigned 90L or 91L within a few days, if not sooner. "
As of 8:00 pm EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 ... A large and complex area of disturbed weather to the south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a broad trough of low pressure and a tropical wave. These systems are forecast to merge over the next day or two, and environmental conditions are then expected to be conducive for development of this disturbance later this week while it moves westward at about 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Flhurricane.com: "The 00Z cycle of model runs seem to be trending weaker (although we haven't yet heard from the Euro). The CMC does very little with it (although it really likes the wave behind it) and the 00Z GFS is considerably weaker. One thing that's a bit concerning is that the pattern in about a week should feature much more ridging in the western Atlantic than we have now with Gert so whatever kind of a system we have when it reaches 60-65W should have a chance to get much further west. Next couple days of model runs should be interesting to say the least. "
This is now invest 91L Flhurricane.com: "Much confusion with what and where is 91L this morning. Forecasting this system is going to be a problem unless and until (more likely until) there is really something we can hang our hats on. And it also remains very possible that the most interesting parts of the broad area of low pressure that the original 91L wave is starting to merge with ends up being tracked as two distinct disturbances. (91L and 92L, for example). NHC has shifted their initialization of 91L to the west this morning, now closer to the center of the low pressure trof, and less so the strong wave that just rolled off Africa, and which has not yet merged all that much with the trof. This will change subsequent model runs, probably not by a lot - but perhaps noticeably - from prior runs. As of 7:45AM EDT, the '91L' wave axis was located near 24W from 05N to 21N, with low pressure centered along the axis near 13N 24W. However, as of the 10:37AM EDT NHC graphic update, '91L' was positioned at roughly 12N 30W. And at 10:45AM EDT, NRL had 91L centered at 12.5N 33.8W, and by the next NHC graphical update, it could be this that is being tracked --- and this would be a very substantial repositioning of this Invest. Or, as noted above, we could have two separate Invests to track by this evening. " Betty: " also check my post on the Gert thread about how active this season has become in comparison to other years"
Not to hijack the thread or anything (ok, maybe it trying to hijack it idk, whatever) But what do the Swellinfo.com metrology doctors think of TD GERT ??? It seems like Swellinfo.com forecasters are calling for a good sized swell even due to this storm, for the new jersians... but what do the forecasters know that the metrogist don't?? I'm feeling kinda impartial to it... seems like all hype from the admin forecasters that now own the site since Micah went and sold us out to some online camping store... Anyways- what's you professional input? Do we all call in sick to work and head to The Belmar??
Its already sending some swell to us. It will be an incoming tide swell only, with many a close outs. Might have to take an early lunch on Weds. Hopefully there will be enough leftover swell for the fade but Im not counting on it.
Disturbance 1: 20% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 8:00 am EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 ... An elongated area of low pressure located more than a thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat supportive of tropical cyclone formation over the next few days but should become less favorable once the system moves into the Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Disturbance 2: 10% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 8:00 am EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 ... A second area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is also producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some slow development of this system over the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
