As of 2:00 pm EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 ... A low pressure system located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become a little better defined since yesterday, but most of the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is displaced to the west of the center of circulation. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next day or so while the low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday, if necessary, and interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of the disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Disturbance 2: 40% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 2:00 pm EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 ... A second area of low pressure is located about 800 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and its associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Disturbance 3: 0% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 2:00 pm EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 ... A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this wave while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
It's gotten cray cray, and it's only the middle of August. By October we may be yelling "Mommy make it stop!"
Betty, will there be surf next week in ocmd? had to be an adult recently and no chance to surf.... thanks for the update
Agreed. This has been a great summer and looks like it is only going to get better as we get into fall. So much better than the weeks and weeks of flatness last June-July-August.
92L seems like it has the potential to follow in the footsteps of Gert...taking a southern track and then hooking up to the north right off the coast about a week from now.
92L seems like it has the potential to follow in the footsteps of Gert...taking a southern track and then hooking up to the north right off the coast about a week from now.
92L seems like it has the potential to follow in the footsteps of Gert...taking a southern track and then hooking up to the north right off the coast about a week from now.
Keep us updated betty. After gert I'm ready for the next 3. Looks like Harvey won't send us any goodies if he runs straight west. Got hope for the others.
Disturbance 1: 70% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 2:00 am EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 ... Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 900 miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to show signs of organization. While this system does not yet appear to have a closed circulation, only a slight increase in organization could lead to the formation of a tropical depression before upper-level winds become less favorable for development early next week. The low is expected to move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
The models I just looked at don't look all that impressive for the East Coast. The Gulf could have a serious storm on their hands though a week out.
All three of those storms are already traveling over 20mph, last report. They begging to disintegrate then, etc. Doesn't bode well for formation as the heads of the storms, necessary for true cane formation, get blown off. NEXT!! Now, should they slow down a bit to allow for circular formation......