" It looks like regardless of development (just lowered by NHC, again), 92L or whatever it becomes stays trapped a few days below high pressure to its north, but trapped while still offshore of the southeastern US. Good and bad, there. On the one hand, models suggest it stays offshore, on the other, you have a weak tropical trof drifting about over very warm waters. That said, winds in the near term are hideously unfavorable for development (again), due to nearby upper level lows and outflow from "Harvey." So, any tropical cyclogensis that may yet occur would probably get delayed for another (another) couple of days, and by that time a long wave sweeping off the southeast coast would probably scoop up and maybe merge with whatever it is that still exists or has come of 92L. There's a small chance that 92L slides further west than expected, but in doing so it would probably get blasted by high shear for even longer, and could also be disrupted by land interaction. In summary, 92L tracks west = lower odds of development. Hangs offshore of the southeast = best chance may be Fri/Sat, and then up the east coast or out to sea. " Flhurricane.com
2. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms stretching across the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters is associated with a trough of low pressure. Any development of this system during the next few days should be slow to occur while it drifts northward over Florida and the adjacent waters. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical or subtropical development over the weekend when the system begins to move northeastward over the western Atlantic. Regardless of development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions of the Florida peninsula during the next few days. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
we're projected to get some interesting winds out of Irma in the Carolinas. could be a tradeswell blowout for the wknd with clean chest to head hi starting the work week. like to hear howthose Floridians get it, especially the Jax folk
Make sure when you drop in to not forget to give the thumbs up while you burn the guy. Eye contact is mandatory.
damn....if this materializes the mid atlantic through OBX could get a solid winter ENE swell, while the water is close to 80. Too good to be true. the swell models are in that perfect 6 feet at 11 seconds with local offshore NW winds zone for a couple days next week. Insane.
The GFS has Irma just freaking BOMBING out offshore midweek. Insane. I wonder if the lifeguards in Ocean City Maryland allow step-offs!
ive been around here and there..Chucktown beaches getting awfully crowded glad schools back in should thin out some
