Harvey regenerating

News Flash: NHC says 100% likelihood. Watches for Mex, Tex and Louisiana.


Disturbance 1: 100% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours

As of 8:00 am EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 ...
Satellite images, reconnaissance data and surface observations
indicate that the remmants of Harvey are close to redeveloping into
a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico about 150
miles west of Merida, Mexico. Advisories will likely be re-initiated
at 10 am CDT on this system.

The low is forecast to move to the
northwest at about 10 mph across the western Gulf of Mexico,
possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday.

This
system is likely to slow down once it reaches the coast, increasing
the threat of a prolonged period of heavy rainfall and flooding
across portions of Texas and Louisiana into early next week. Harvey
could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force
winds along portions of the Texas coast later this week, and
Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required later today
for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and
southwestern Louisiana.

Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system and refer to products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for more information.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

 

Flhurricane.com:

"
Overnight model runs are extremely interesting, going to call out a few things not normally mentioned on this one.

6Z GFS takes the system into Texas near Matagorda on Saturday morning as a cat 1 (although strengthening at landfall), and slowly meanders it around eastern Texas, near Houston on Monday morning, then scoots it along eastward into Louisana and MS dropping incredible amounts of rainfall. This model has only a single landfall and is rain heavy.

0z Euro takes the system in near the same place on Saturday, as a strong TS or Cat 1 hurricane, stalls it out over land, then back into the Gulf Sunday night where it restrengthens into a hurricane, it then crawls along the texas coast and is just offhshore of houston as a category 2 hurricane, again raining like mad in Texas, likely a cat 2 hurricane at the time, then landfalls near Port Arthur midday on Tuesday. Rainfall estimates are in excess of 20" in many areas of Texas.

CMC landfalls in brownsville then hooks left into Mexico, seems less likely given current movement trends.

6z HWRF takes the system in as a 972mb hurricane (cat2), late Friday night, then basically stalls out over land in east Texas.

There is potential for rapid intensification before landfall with this system due to the position of the upper level low at the time (it's position relative to Harvey would enhance the spin)

The NAM mesoscal model at the newer 3k resolution shows Harvey approaching the Eastern Texas coast as a category 5 (897mb) hurricane, https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...=0&ypos=342

Although the NAM is not to be used as an intensity model and not a good tropical model, it is picking up the possibility that rapid intensification could happen.

In short from rainmaker to potentially major hurricane somewhere in Texas, slow moving (either on or offshore) would bring in crazy amounts of rain, and we hope it remains disorganized enough to not rapidly intensify before landfall. But those in Texas absolutely should be watching it, and for signs of strengthening, if RI were to happen there would not be much warning for it.

One good bit of news, most of the usual intensity models keeps the system below hurricane strength over the next 5 days. So the rainfall event is more likely than not, but the potential for intensification is there."

 

Aircraft recon found 984 pressure, and a 16 nautical mile wide closed eye in Harvey. It's deepening quickly and winds will increase shortly after. Expect a hurricane today, and possibly a major hurricane at landfall "--flhurricane.com