Anyone have any theories. Last winter wasn't good where I live but the previous three were super consistent and great. I look at farmers almanac but not sure that really means anything. Looking towards winter now that tropics seem dead. Thoughts?
No clue breh, but I have a feeling it’s gonna be a cold one. I hope we get nothing, but stand out Nor’easters for days. There were a few that stuck out in my mind, particularly Stella. Winter is the season of lephs. Backside is cool and all, but I’d rather go front any day.
stella was "thee" one.i always see a lot of other states get the best conditions from a swell like ny and obx.stella turned the tables by it maxing in jers. based on the amount of hurricanes we had I think its going to be a boat load of activity in the winter.i just hope it doesn't snow,which it will
Pretty sure CA had it's best winter for snow in a really long time last year. People were snowboarding in mamouth up until Aug 4th - 270 days of snowboarding.
Every year I hear people say, "We are supposed to get a sheet ton of snow this year!". Meh, I believe it when I see it! I am hoping we get quite a bit considering I signed up to help DelDOT with snow removal. Surf is good, too! HA HA
i'd be content with a couple clean head high or bigger swells a week in jersey and at least 300" in Killington, falling mostly on or immediately prior to the weekends, but not the ones that the waves are good in jersey.
I hope we get a couple good hard freezes this year to kill some bugs. Last year it only got below freezing once, and that was in late march so it got a bunch of my tender plants. As far as storms and swells go, we can't even predict 5 days out much less three months!
Content??!! That would be... a first. Let's just put it that way. Normally, we get "a couple of clean head high or bigger swells" a month. I'd say a "good" winter would be a clean swell a week. But you know as well as I do, sometimes we go 2-3 weeks with nothing but NW wind. That's when SI starts firing.
From NOAA Climate Prediction Center For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18, a weak La Niña is favored in the dynamical model averages of the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] and North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) [Fig. 7]. Several models indicate a period of near-average Niño-3.4 values in the upcoming weeks, but then predict reinvigorated growth of negative SST anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These forecasts are supported by the ongoing easterly wind anomalies across portions of the Pacific Ocean and the reservoir of below-average subsurface temperatures. In summary, La Niña conditions are favored (~55-65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
Haha yeah I know, the "content" was a joke. That's basically the best case scenario I could possibly imagine. I really only have the past two winters as reference, those were the first two where I lived here and was actually dedicated enough to be on it for every swell throughout. I thought two years ago was pretty good, nothing massive but I remember all of January and February pretty much having one good head high or slightly overhead clean day per week like clockwork. VT had the worst snow year in history though, and the ensuing spring/summer of surf here was probably the worst I've ever seen. Last winter seemed pretty mediocre to me. Some nice early season swells especially on that really cold Sunday in early January but then February didn't have a single day that was bigger than waist high and clean (at least not that I saw, I did take one brief trip out of town).
I'm going to say that no matter how great the winter is by snow totals, its going to be tough to build a base (yet again). The Northeast just doesnt go into the freezer for a few months any more. We're going to get the thaws and the rains in between snowfalls, and those who love the trees will be booking flights. Is there anything worse than winter fog? I think we still might get one or two lows coming up the coast from the tropics. I sure hope the winter is a good one for surf because I just went all in on a new winter rubber set up.
I do remember the first time I moved to Colorado for grad school having the realization that the biggest difference in snow quality out there vs. the East Coast, at least for the Summit County mountains closest to Denver and the Front Range, is not the amount of snow or even the water content but the fact that at 12,000 ft it basically NEVER rains between the start of November and mid-April. But you never know. Agree that the overall trend seems to be getting warmer but it still varies a lot year by year. I remember seasons in the early 2000s when we'd pull up to our house at 3 am in mid January and it'd be 65 degrees and raining in sheets. And more recently there've been some better years... still the occasional thaw and rain mid season but there've been recent seasons where the trees are good to go more often than not. I'm not a very reliable judge though.... as long as there's more white in there than brown/green, I will ski nothing but trees all day and I've trashed more pairs of skis than I can count at this point.
everyone talks about winters, but when it comes to DEAD flat spells, some of the worst ever have come in January when we get three straight weeks of bitter NW wind. The ocean gets that wierd look where the horizon has heavy texture but near the beach there are 8 inch waves lapping...cruelly I might add....because they often seem to look like miniature peeling barrels in those conditions.
