Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Slow development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves northwestward to northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
As of 2:00 am EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 ... An elongated low pressure system located near the northeastern coast of Nicaragua is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over much of the northwestern and southwestern Caribbean Sea, and the adjacent coastal areas of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Further development, if any, should be slow to occur for the next couple of days due to interaction with the landmass of Central America. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive thereafter for some development to occur over the northwestern Caribbean Sea while the system moves slowly northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Disturbance 1: 10% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 2:00 am EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 ... A broad area of low pressure over Nicaragua, Honduras, and the adjacent Caribbean waters is producing widespread, but disorganized, showers and thunderstorms. Close proximity to land is likely to limit development of this system for the next day or so. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development to occur later this week while the system moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Central America during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Hopefully these back to back cold fronts will keep anything Wilma like from popping up on us, and drag the system out to sea before it gets ramped up. Then early next week a small clean swell...hopefully. A lot of folks in my neighborhood, including me, still have half our shutters up. It's not over quite yet.
Yep. I agree. Plus more rain means more discharge from Lake Okeechobee which means lower salinity in the lagoon and the shoreline, and hence alligators in the near shore, and pollutants from the run off in the lineup. (Thank you Army Corps of Musketeers, and Big Sugar.)
I saw on the TV news last night, a 12 foot gator washed up just north of you, it took five or six trappers to get him out of the surf, roll him in a tarp, and hog tie him. 600 lbs estimated. That crap is freaky. Thank you Big Sugar , US Army Corp, and the South Florida Water Mismanagement District, (and the NFL - might as well include them, speaking of SOBs)
e of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 2:00 am EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 ... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea and Central America are gradually becoming better organized. Close proximity to land is likely to limit development of this system on Thursday. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the system to become more organized Friday and Saturday as it moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions less favorable by Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Central America and Cuba during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...
of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 2:00 am EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 ... Shower activity associated with a trough of low preesure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has become more concentrated during the past several hours between northeastern Honduras and Jamaica. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development today and Saturday as the system moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions less favorable by Sunday. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. These rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Invest 93L As of 8:00 am EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 ... Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more concentrated in association with a trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development today and Saturday, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Increasing upper-level winds will make conditions less favorable when the system moves north of Cuba and merges with a cold front on Sunday. Interests in the Cayman Islands and central and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this system . Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. These rains are also forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday and Sunday, ,flooding Betty’s driveway yet again, creating treacherous conditions for Valhalla , FLSURFDOG, and sisurfdog who have just recently dried out from Irma and the no name storm 2 weeks ago. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Write up on how this system is going to get entrained into a cold front and get swept up the east coast sunday/monday and may cause winds as high as 50-60 mph in eastern new england. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ay-swipe-mid-atlantic/?utm_term=.ab4ca2b3f5c2
nce of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 2:00 pm EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 ... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are beginning to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or Saturday as the system moves northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before turning northeastward by late Saturday. Tropical storm watches and warnings may be needed for the Cayman Islands, central and western Cuba, and the central and northwestern Bahamas later today or tonight. Interests in the Florida Keys and South Florida should also monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. Rainfall is also forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern and central Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
As of 0500 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 (Advisory # 1) Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 knots; 40 mph Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb Located at: 17.5N 84.5W Movement: north-northwest at 5 knots; 6 mph Formation Potential * Formation Chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation Chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
I opened up a new tread for this storm as it seems like it will be TS Philippe https://www.swellinfo.com/forum/showthread.php?32116-TS-Philippe&p=479279#post479279
