Gulf bound system may be developing

This is tagged invest (or, incest for veteran SI dudes) 90L

A broad surface low centered just east of Belize is producing a
large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the Florida peninsula. While strong
upper-level winds and dry air aloft are expected to limit
organization during the next couple of days, some gradual
subtropical or tropical development is possible late this week while
the system moves slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and much of
Florida during the next several days. For more information on the
heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

 

As of 8:00 am EDT Wed May 23 2018 ...
A broad surface low centered near the coast of northeastern Belize
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and into
the Florida Straits. Little development is expected during the
next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and proximity to
the Yucatan Peninsula. However, environmental conditions are then
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression could form this weekend over the eastern or
central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the Cayman Islands
during the next few days, and over much of Florida and the
northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information on the
heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

It’s going straight up the coast

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=1&year=2018&title=90

 

Formation in 48 Hours
As of 7:10 pm EDT Wed May 23 2018 ...
A broad surface low centered over the southeastern Yucatan
Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, and it
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the
Florida Straits. Continued slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near
the Yucatan Peninsula. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the
eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over much of Florida
and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information
on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 AM EDT on Thursday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 

“
A Central American Gyre (CAG) interacting with a stubborn mid-upper level trof over the southern states and Gulf is producing an area of disturbed weather that is gradually organizing in the northwest Caribbean. This expansive hybrid system is being tracked as Invest 90L - not to be confused with the similar, but less coherent, hybrid feature we were watching in the GOM just ten days ago.

What is truly remarkable, is how stubborn this pattern continues to be, already having flipped the Florida dry season on its head in next to no time, and now with even greater chances of a named system, one possibly lingering for several days to come.

With nearly all subtropical and tropical cyclones in general, and certainly the slower moving ones in particular, inland flooding is by far the greatest threat to life and property, and that would be no surprise here, especially given how saturated much of the area already is, and how long this system - and its parents, the Upper Trof and/or the Central American Gyre, may stick around.

According to Dr. Klotzbach, since 1950 only 8 named storms have formed during the last week of May in the Atlantic. In fact, no named storms on record have formed in the GOM at all during this time, so should 90L become Alberto here (very possible), it would indeed be something for the books.

Tropical or subtropical cyclogenesis could happen as soon as later today, with odds forecast to be increasing heading into the weekend. Recent ship and buoy reports suggest that maximum sustained winds associated with 90L may already be on the rise, and based on satellite imagery, so is deep convection. Thus, it would not be inconceivable to see NHC begin advisories on this "Potential Tropical Cyclone" prior to formation given how close it is to land. (In fact, at the time of this entry, 90L's "center" appears to be inland or just barely off”

-flhurricane.com

 

As of 1:30 pm EDT Thu May 24 2018 ...
A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined.

Although showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain
primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive
for development through early next week, and a subtropical or
tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday
afternoon, if necessary.

Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across
western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast
into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will
steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to
Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on
these threats, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT this evening.


* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

 

“Development chances for Alberto (Tropical or Subtropical) are up to (90%), bringing a good bit of rain. Landfall will likely be somewhere between the MS/LA state line and Panama City Beach, FL. However most of the rain will be on the east side (and sometimes very east) of the center.

On/Off Bands of rain will likely start on Saturday for most of Florida, then moving up to include the Northeast Gulf as the weekend progresses, probably through Monday/Tuesday.

There may be some short lived Tornadoes in a few areas east of the center, so look out for watches if they do come.

There may be some minor storm surge along the north gulf points east of landfall as well.

Those from MS to the Big Bend will want to watch this system very closely for changes, there is a small window for intensification Sunday.”

Flhurricane.com

 

The Mets at flhurricane.com say,

“Models are really dependent on where a good center forms for landfall location, it may be moving off the Yucatan now based on sat images (to the east).

Euro has slowed down and entered into cat 1 hurricane range before landfall, GFS is stronger this morning also, and moved a bit west. The zone from LA/MS to Panama City seems most likely, although not 100% where the center eventually forms is a good part of it, and how long it stalls out. Parts immediately east of the center will see the worst of it.

The potential for a hurricane is there, and there are signs it may slow down or stall as it nears the coast as well.”