Trump / FBI / Russians

k

 

starting to make some sense.. FUNgus

 

better get those eyes checked /fixed

 

Tell us all what you know about it, and we can compare notes

I'm betting not much

 

Although your “fine” theory could change the “demand”, the scarcity principal coming into play due to a wall would strain the demand to a point where the demand would need to pivot to a different product (labor source for instance). But, the wall is not just about supply side for labor (we could apply same thoughts to Cocaine).

Hog farmers will be fine...almost everyone loves pork...especially politicians lol!

 

We've already discussed fining employers (Employer Sanctions), it's already law as per IRCA 1986. It's not being enforced to its full effect because politicians were being pressured by employers who believed it to be an unfair burden. The fines and penalties are already substantial.

Border fencing creates deterrence beyond illegal entry and drug trafficking.

Similarly, visas and permits exist to import low skilled workers for labor shortages.

Maybe streamline those permits to make it easier to import labor, but tighten up responsibilities so the government can keep better track of who we allow.

Anyone who lived on the border when only 4 strands of barbed wire separated the 2 countries will remember the Wild West chaos, and how all that changed when we first started reinforcing the border in the mid 1990's. Night and day.

Yet we constantly hear from some elitist Nancy clown tucked away in White Bread New Hampshire babbling about how walls aren't necessary.

Utterly effen clueless

 

Yep...well put roque.

 

Since visas were brought up, I read people staying after it expires is another big problem. How do you take care of that, starve them of jobs. Before spending billions on a wall let’s get serious and make the fines happen, it will work.

 

Expired visas are “an” issue.

$25b is a drop in the well compared to what we spend on illegal immigration.

 

CBP has a non-immigrant visa tracking program called USVisit which uses fingerprints, photo ID and myriad personal information to track what are known as "overstays". The program started about 8 years ago and is the best way to guard against visa abuse, in conjunction with other intelligence programs.

Despite being a consistent (but untrue) liberal talking point, there is no truth whatsoever about stories claiming that overstays outnumber illegal entries. It's a big lie. But yes, overstays absolutely make up a large number of illegal immigrants.

Yes, using our existing employer sanctions laws will make an enormous dent in our illegal population. But employer sanctions will not solve the entire problem.

The various barrier fences put in place between 1994-2008, while proving to be a very good deterrent, have also proved to be breachable in certain areas. Newer, better obstacles need to be considered.

Don't forget, people aren't coming here in droves for employment only. I've stated before how simple it is to obtain various documents to abuse benefit programs.

Again, if the American public actually knew the amount of fraud being perpetrated against them, normal rational taxpayers would be outraged.

 

You are talking to a WALL. Holy crap I crack myself up !

 

Trump was correct yet again. Look at today's stock market activity / ending results.



Manufacturing employment fell by 210,000 during Barack Obama’s two terms. It has risen by 473,000 jobs in Donald Trump’s first two years.

All of this suggests the U.S. economy is poised to keep growing in 2019, despite slower growth around the world. The Fed aside, the key policy variable is trade. Businesses are waiting on investments as they see how Mr. Trump’s multifront tariff spree plays out. If the President strikes a deal with China, removes his car-tariff threat, and doesn’t blow up Nafta, the uncertainty would ebb and good times could continue to roll.

excerpted from WSJ Jan 4

 

Let's hope not lol.

Immigration and border issues have been my bread and butter for nearly all my life. If I have one single knowledge base, this is it.

I'm only seeking civil discourse over hyperbole to better inform the reader.

What the reader chooses to do with that information is up to them...be informed, or remain ignorant and spread untrue talking points being spooned to them by their poor choice of media sources.

Slide on

 

Americans needed some reassuring economic news, and on Friday they received a double dose: First, a blowout jobs report for December, followed by a tacit admission by Chairman Jerome Powell that he had messed up at his December press conference by suggesting the Federal Reserve is on “auto-pilot” on its tightening course.

Markets reacted with a big vote of confidence, sending the Dow Jones average up 3.3% and the Nasdaq 4.3%. The equity rally roared right past continuing political rancor in Washington over a partial government shutdown that may not end soon—a sign that policy gridlock wouldn’t be the worst outcome over the next two years.

Potomac Watch Podcast
The Pelosi Congress
The labor report could hardly have been better, with employers creating 312,000 new jobs in the last month of 2018, plus an upward revision of 58,000 for October and November. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.7%, but that was also good news as 419,000 workers joined the labor force. Many haven’t yet found work, but the flood of job seekers suggests the U.S. still isn’t at full employment.

They’re being drawn by more openings and rising pay. One intriguing note is that the number of job leavers rose in the month by 142,000 to 839,000. This reflects workers’ confidence that they can find a better job at better pay in what is the best U.S. labor market since the middle of the last decade.

We’d note in particular that manufacturers added 32,000 jobs in December, for an increase of 2.3% for 2018. That’s impressive for an expansion now into its ninth year, and it shows the benefit of the new capital investment spurred by tax reform and deregulation. Manufacturing employment fell by 210,000 during Barack Obama’s two terms. It has risen by 473,000 jobs in Donald Trump’s first two years.

Employers are also paying more as average hourly earnings rose again and are now up 3.2% in the last year. That’s the fastest rate since before the financial panic and it looks set to continue as businesses compete to hire and retain the best workers.

The trend is spreading even to traditionally lower-paid corners of the economy. Wages in retail trades are up 4.6% for the year and 5.5% for the last three months. Leisure and hospitality wages for production-level workers rose 4.3% for the year and 5.1% in the last quarter. If this keeps up, Senator Elizabeth Warren will have to retool her 2020 campaign message that the middle class is vanishing.

Amid this good news, the worry is that the labor market is a lagging economic indicator. The December report suggests considerable underlying economic strength, but recent evidence shows signs of softening in manufacturing, tightening credit markets, and declines in consumer and business confidence. The declines in the stock market and bond yields have also raised fears of slowing growth.

Which brings us to Mr. Powell, who sent stocks soaring with comments Friday that the Fed isn’t on a “pre-set” course to keep raising interest rates in 2019. “With the muted inflation readings that we’ve seen coming in, we will be patient as we watch to see how the economy evolves,” Mr. Powell told a conference in Atlanta. Hear, hear.

That’s about as close a central banker will come to acknowledging that the Fed made a mistake in raising rates again in December amid credit-market cracks, a strong dollar, falling bond yields and commodity prices, and no signs of inflation. Mr. Powell had seemed almost cavalier at his press conference about rate increases and the steady decline in the Fed’s balance sheet. On Friday he showed more caution about the pace of this combo-tightening maneuver that no central bank has executed before.

The Fed would repeat its December error if it considers the strong job report as vindication and returns to rote tightening. Rising wages aren’t inflationary if they reflect gains in labor productivity, which surged in 2018. The flow of new workers into the labor force also suggests room to grow faster even with a jobless rate at a historically low 3.9%. The labor participation rate is up 0.4 percentage points to 63.1% in the last year, but a surge of younger people of working age means that rate has room to rise.

All of this suggests the U.S. economy is poised to keep growing in 2019, despite slower growth around the world. The Fed aside, the key policy variable is trade. Businesses are waiting on investments as they see how Mr. Trump’s multifront tariff spree plays out. If the President strikes a deal with China, removes his car-tariff threat, and doesn’t blow up Nafta, the uncertainty would ebb and good times could continue to roll.

Appeared in the January 5, 2019, print edition.

 

Your knowledge on the issue is legit.

 

I think if we can see actual sustained wage growth, modest GDP growth, and some progress with China (which is an oxymoron...but the markets don’t care), I believe we will work through a shallow bear market and continue to go strong...

 

Markets are not my knowledge base, not even close lol.

I don't feel comfortable commenting on markets, due to volatility as well as my personal lack of knowledge.

But I would like to see the end of the radical volatility

 

It's not anything close to any sort of bear market. That's media pundits aka asshats like the TV clown Cramer yapping to fill airspace. You'll do better by switching him / them off.

More importantly, pay attention to the fundamentals. This economy is cranking on all cylinders. The tariff yah yah is short-term medicine that no one enjoys but is necessary. It will blow over & be gone, and in 6 months no one will be yapping about it.

As to volatility. Any trader will tell you that you can't make money without volatility. Gotta have it. Volatility is fodder for the media machine, the hype, the Chicken Little crowd, the broken-clock-is-correct-twice-per-day crowd, et. al, ad nauseum.

Gotta have volatility to make money on a short-term basis in the markets. Fact of life. Long-term perspective is where the big money is made, though, so, again, switch off your sets.