https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/accuweathers-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast/705233 AccuWeather's 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast is out summarized: Led by Dan Kottlowksi, AccuWeather's top hurricane expert, meteorologists this week released a 2020 Atlantic hurricane forecast. Kottlowksi's team is calling for 14-18 tropical storms during this upcoming season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Of those storms, seven to nine are forecast to become hurricanes, and two to four are predicted to strengthen into major hurricanes. “It’s going to be an above-normal season,” Kottlowski said. “On a normal year, we have around 12 storms, six hurricanes and roughly three major hurricanes.” The 2019 season marked the fourth consecutive year of above-average activity in the basin and was tied with 1969 for the fourth most-active hurricane season on record. Featuring hurricanes Dorian, Lorenzo and Humberto as well as Tropical Storm Imelda, the 2019 season resulted in 18 storms overall and caused more than $11 billion in damage. And there’s reason to believe the 2020 season could be every bit as active. Early in the season, meteorologists will keep a watchful eye on parts of the Caribbean Sea and areas east of the Bahamas, where the water is already very warm. Water temperatures in the Caribbean have already hit 80 degrees Fahrenheit in late March, according to data from a NOAA station.
Maybe this is the year I do it myself, but I've always wondered how these predictions hold up generally. Not in a 'gotcha' way, just to evaluate if there's any usefulness to their forecasting models in general.
At most, these forecasts are <3 storms off, maybe one big storm off. They've been higher the past 3 yrs I wanna say
Who knows. There was about 50 years in a row where the stretch of beach I live on was undisturbed by hurricane activity. I have been under mandatory evacuation the last 4 years in a row. 2 out of the 4 resulted in substantial damage, but for whatever reason, I feel like the activity is going to remain on the high side moving forward, where a year with far less storms will be out of the ordinary. I was only able to catch Irma and Florence in epic conditions because I had to evacuate to Florida for Florence and Northern SC for Irma. The other two evacuations made me take the family and "head for the hills" literally up to Greenville and Charlotte. My love hate with hurricanes has been more on the side of hate in recent years. The first 4 years when I moved back to the east coast was filled with fun swells every couple weeks and no landfall in sight.
