what happened to the forecast swell

Discussion in 'Mid Atlantic' started by beachbreak, Jun 10, 2010.

  1. beachbreak

    beachbreak Well-Known Member

    Apr 7, 2008
    ?
    it was flat this morning.
    the forecast shrunk each day.

    and you could start heaping your criticism,but save it.

    i just would like to know why in the forecast it looked like a swell but kept shrinking to this.

    Micah?
     
  2. Shift

    Shift Well-Known Member

    49
    Sep 28, 2009
    Wasn't flat in ocnj, got some decent rides this morning
     

  3. LBCrew

    LBCrew Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2009
    I'd say the low that's associated with this cold front never deepened enough to create the fetch, strength, and duration of wind needed to generate any size.

    I'll also add that the tide was too high this morning here. Could be better this afternoon?
     
  4. SeaDaddy

    SeaDaddy Well-Known Member

    116
    Dec 21, 2008
    I said it before I'll say it again NEVER trust a south wind swell that's blowing around 20knts for less then 24hrs from one of these frontal systems. When the wind turns offshore before dawn, if your not there at first light to catch some knee high bombers it will be gone by time the tide drops out. :eek:
     
  5. beachbreak

    beachbreak Well-Known Member

    Apr 7, 2008
    thanks.
    then why was it forecast way bigger every day until this morning?
     
  6. DTK

    DTK Well-Known Member

    139
    Aug 14, 2007
    pls quit whining...

    Simply to "F" with you...just kidding

    Now, stop whining and rely on an actual/visual/your own eyes 'surf check' to compliment any and all electronic forecasts...

    And please, quit whining or go back down into Mom n Dad's basement.
     
  7. tommy9'0"

    tommy9'0" Well-Known Member

    58
    Dec 7, 2009
    you cant rely on forecasts for waves just check it for yourself
     
  8. matt720

    matt720 Well-Known Member

    76
    Apr 28, 2009
    does it matter what the forecast was? if you live in chadwick you have no more than a 1 minute walk to the beach unless your on the island.
     
  9. beachbreak

    beachbreak Well-Known Member

    Apr 7, 2008
    just wonderin' why the forecast shrunk.
    i'll be there.
    working 26 miles inland don't help.
    after the winter it gets frustrating,the shrinkage of forecasts.
    this is a forecast site.
    hope it's bigger than this morning
     
  10. Zippy

    Zippy Well-Known Member

    Nov 16, 2007
    I surfed this mornig that's all I know.
     
  11. LBCrew

    LBCrew Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2009
    I got a few waist to belly high fun ones on the log yesterday, so the forecast for here wasn't far off at all. A lot of it depends on how your local works during different tides. Just because the swell is forecast to be thigh to waist high, doesn't mean you won't get down to the beach and it be unrideable due to the tide. You might get skunked, but in a couple hours, there could be a half dozen guys out at the same spot having fun.
     
  12. jbird

    jbird Well-Known Member

    47
    Jan 25, 2007
    wind

    Just really disappointed in the wind around OCMD. Suppose to be offshore all day. It did everything but that.
     
  13. cxbbdr4

    cxbbdr4 Member

    16
    May 19, 2006
    Dude weather and waves are not an exact science, and are ever changing.
     
  14. 34thStreetSurfing

    34thStreetSurfing Well-Known Member

    474
    Aug 13, 2009
    See the issue im having is that I have this site set to my homepage... so basically every other hour i see how the future outlook changes and whatnot... And seeing a 6 foot swell coming next wednesday, last night, then waking up and seeing it change to ankle slappers makes a tear roll down my face. Im by no means saying its anyones fault and i know that future forecasts have probably a zero percent chance of actually showing up... Im just expressing my sorrow :(
     
  15. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    its the nature of the beast, relying greatly on the weather models at this point...

    after, a while, you realize that the computer models 3,5,etc. days out aren't very reliable (especially for the quick moving East Coast systems pushing off the coast), and so it is required to stay on top of the updates.

    There are many approaches that are on the to-do list, that will make the Swellinfo forecasts more intelligent... I'm really excited about rolling these out down the line, but it will take some time to get there. So many things to do!
     
  16. souljahsky

    souljahsky Well-Known Member

    230
    May 28, 2006
    There always seems to be a swell headed our way "at the end of the week". It seems to be that way on all forecasting sites. I think we, as surfers, are a little too optimistic about the computer models 3-5 days out.
     
  17. 34thStreetSurfing

    34thStreetSurfing Well-Known Member

    474
    Aug 13, 2009
    Yeah, Mr. Swellinfo, your site is absolutely amazing, its my homepage and therefore is what i see every other hour. And I love the setup and of everything and I eagerly wait for new videos and pictures to check out. But im just sayin I have to stop getting so excited about swells 6 days in advance. I just have to begin training myself
     
  18. souljahsky

    souljahsky Well-Known Member

    230
    May 28, 2006
    I should point you to this thread: http://www.swellinfo.com/forum/showthread.php?t=8219
     
  19. Mitchell

    Mitchell Well-Known Member

    Jan 5, 2009
    yesterday was crazy in OCMD...offshore before 7 a.m. and after 6 p.m with a nice solid seabreeze in between. Makes sense...water temps in the 60s inland temps hit 90. Warm air rises, air from somewhere has to fill its place. Models have difficulties with sea breeze becuase its really a micro-scale phenomenon.