Forecast accuracy

yankee - NO! I refuse to believe that Micah would sell us out like that. Sure the page is polluted with sidebar pay-per-click ads (none of which are for the big name surf companies that you named though..?) but no way would he manipulate the buoy data to hype site traffic numbers... WOULD HE???>>>????? im going to tell myself "no", and that you ate one too many hot dogs outside of yankee stadium. Oh ish, its time for my 8am bong rip. See ya!

AAAAAAAAAAAAnd not to be nasty, but I recall you starting the thread which likely inspired this one.... Either way, i really hope your theory is wrong or there will be some serious peeing matches to follow.


8===> ~~~

-stud

 

if it shows green and clean a week out, it is because the global models are showing offshore wind conditions at that time... Of course, as we east coasters know, on the east coast, that as we go out in time, the models are less and less accurate.

As east coasters, we are reliant on fast moving systems that move off the coast... So, anytime, you are predicting wind swell systems, you will have to keep tuning in to see how the weather systems evolve as they move across the country.

The west coast, in contrast, is much different as it is mostly swells being propagated across thousand of miles before it reaches the coastline. Here the swell is already being produced and it just a matter of ocean wave physics, which is very accurate in timing swells. West coast also, is generally easier to predict near shore wind conditions due to the generalized weather patterns.

Believe me, the objective of Swellinfo is to provide the most accurate forecasts... To not have a good forecasts what not be advantageous to the business model.

Having said that, we are working on some major enhancements on the forecast side of things... it will just take some time, because there is so much to do and not enough money to get these things done quickly.

As far as ads... well, of course, Swellinfo is trying its best to make money and support the time it takes to keep this site going. How else, could I spend most of my waking hours dedicated to the cause.

 

This is totally off topic but anyways.. Any chance of the southeast receiving any swell from that massive open ocean low about 5 days out??? Pretty unique circumstance in the Atlantic as generally the lowest move west to east and this one seems to stall and send the swell east to west...

 

I’ve followed a handful of wave forecasting models over the years, and I’ve learned a few things over time. First, don’t put your eggs in one basket. Analyze the free wave forecasting models that are available. Even Surfline can be gleaned (for free) for information. Some models are better calibrated for short period wind swells while others tend to forecast long period swell energy more accurately. Do your homework & learn what programs to rely on & when. If the forecasted waves are on, then off, then on again, rest a sure it is because the weather forecasting programs that websites like Swellinfo use to predict waves are not in agreement.

 

I looks at all types of weather forcasting site along with Swellinfo but its the Eastcoast sometimes you have only a short window and you have to get on that **** while its good.
I know not everyone has the option of driving or walking down the block to go check it so I can understand why some get mad if the forcast of off for the worst. One thing people should keep in mind that this site is ran out the Swellinfo pocket and is free for us to use .
But knowing about what swell and wind direction and tides work best for the spot you go to the most will less your chance for let downs

 

There y'all have it.
Meaning: it is what it is.
And I, for one, respect the bidness model that Micah has developed here. I stand by what I said, which is not an accusation, it's just reality...
This is a good site.

(And Lee didn't even drop a nuke on me.
I like progress. )
'Nuff said !

 

yankee, i think by 'good' here he means 'accurate' not 'green'. meaning if the forecasts are always off nobody will bother checking the site anymore...

 

exactly... To think that I would hype a swell forecast "just because" is just silly. It is based on the models my friends. So, when Swellinfo is hyping, it is directly based on the GFS global weather model, which all the other weather/surf forecasting sites are basing long range forecasts on.. Come on now, I am not that sly of a person to deceive people

Having said, there are ideas in which I have come up with to track errors and work on statistical corrections of swell forecasts based on historic data. More of a stochastic model approach. It is in the pipeline, but just so much to do.

 

SwellInfo's forecasts are the best out there. Period. Mica's models and their interpretations are as good as it gets. The rest boils down to local knowledge... which keeps us all honest. You either know your area, or you don't... and score or not.

 

The underlying language of any website:
Clicks & Eyeballs & Page Visits & Unique Visitors.

 

True to a point. If the the site is consistently inaccurate, then the clicks and eyeballs go bye bye. There used to be a shop in OC that did that all the time. They would hype swells for weekend and blatantly lie about the conditions to get people to come down (this was pre-internet). Finally people got the sh!ts of it and stopped going to that shop. next thing you know, the shop folded. Same here. If Micah really mis-represented things he would be out of business quickly.

Bottom line like most people said, use this a s guide only and NEVER plan anything around a forecast more than 48 hours out.

 

What he said.

Back when, I did the Surfline Premium gig for too long. But the east coast 'forecasts' were consistently useless.
And the ads....the endless ads on that site. As thick with the marketing as the print mags are.

Micah was with Surfline. He said adios to Surfline & for good reason.
Good stuff here on this site.

 

My underlying object for Swellinfo is to do something that i love and make people stoked on a product that I can help make better and better in time - I have many out of the box ideas to evolve the way we are forecasting surf conditions, and that is what motivates me. Most of my time is spent on development and not selling ads... that is why there aren't as many surf specific ads on here... because I'd rather develop the product then be the business person. But, whether I like it or not, I have to wear many hats.

 

Another thumbs up to Micah! If any of you have met or surfed with him, you'd see his dedication and openness.


When is everyone going to stop crying that SwellInfo can't produce the perfect A-frame's in their backyard? Get a clue..

 

This should have been in the "what is everyone thankful for" thread, but here goes...

I am thankful for Micah...I have used several sites, including Surfline, bit I have to say for east coast predictions, Swellinfo is the most accurate indeed...now somebody buy my 6'4" Al Merrick Flyer, so I can feel better about impulsively buying my new Nugget, pictured here...lol

 

That's not a Nugget....

...THIS is a Nugget.....

 

haha..nice Ray...I can't wait to take this new board out...swell gods, make me happy!

 

Jeeeez Loueeez......take your face out of the man's butt cheeks, por favor.

No one's "crying" here, Slim.

As an analogy,
while driving your vehicle do you often forget to notice green lights & then only move when the cacophony of air horns going off behind you makes you move your large arse off the line ....??

Think about it...

 

You're gonna dig it, the most!