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  1. #1

    Tropical system forming in Gulf

    As of 2:00 am EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 ...

    A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
    cloudiness and showers over most of Honduras and the northwestern
    Caribbean Sea. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual
    development of this large disturbance while it moves slowly
    northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into
    the south-central Gulf of Mexico early next week. Regardless of
    development, heavy rains are likely to spread over portions of
    Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba during
    the next several days.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Central FL
    Posts
    14,885
    Get it Gilfsters!

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    near Texas
    Posts
    1,328
    Time ta dust off the choo choo, clean out the spider webs, and get the box loaded with coal...

    The new season is upon us.


  4. #4
    7:20 a.m. Update:

    "Disturbance 2: 20% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
    As of 8:00 am EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 ...
    A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
    cloudiness and showers over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
    adjacent land areas.

    Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual
    development of this large disturbance while it moves slowly
    northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, and a
    tropical cyclone could form early next week over the southern or
    central Gulf of Mexico.
    Regardless of development, heavy rains are
    likely to spread over portions of Central America, the Yucatan
    Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the
    next several days.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

  5. #5
    Flhurricane.com
    "
    Morning model runs for W. Carib:

    0z Euro moves it to the west starting Monday as a weak mess over the main part of Mexico on Thursday.

    6Z GFS, has it developing in the eastern gulf, late Monday, then a messy tropical storm landfall near Destin on Wednesday. Another area of energy spits off west toward Texas by the end of the week.
    6Z GFS Parallel ramps things up fast in the east Gulf on Monday, and then a hurricane landfall in Panama City on Tuesday afternoon. Another area of energy spits off west toward Texas by the end of the week. (just rain)

    CMC has a strong TS or Hurricane over Destin Wednesday morning.

    Navgem has a mess moving over LA on Thursday with all the rain to the east.

    Euro is still most likely (but not by much) the fact it's Saturday morning and we still have a split is a bit concerning, but keep watch on it. Monday is likely the day we'll know, which may not allow much preparation time time if the GFS is correct. GFS is seeing the split with some energy going to Texas later int he week, but the main part developing quickly in the eastern Gulf. It's hard to say much more since nothing has developed yet.

    It likely will become an invest later today. Of the two, the Euro is more likely, but still worth watching either way. "

  6. #6
    I'm pulling for the 6z gfs models. Fingers crossed we get some goods towards the end of the week. Enough to keep the crowds low but little/no damage, and some clean up swell

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Panhandler View Post
    I'm pulling for the 6z gfs models. Fingers crossed we get some goods towards the end of the week. Enough to keep the crowds low but little/no damage, and some clean up swell
    Doesn't seem like too much to ask for. Let me see what I can do...

  8. #8
    As of 2:00 pm EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 ...
    Satellite data and surface observations indicate that a broad low
    pressure area has formed over the Gulf of Honduras, and the
    associated shower activity is showing signs of organization.
    Continued gradual development is expected as the system moves slowly
    northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula during the remainder of
    the weekend,

    and a tropical cyclone is likely to form early next
    week over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico.


    Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely to spread over portions of
    Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands,
    and western Cuba during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve
    Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on
    Sunday, if necessary.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
    Last edited by Betty; Jun 17, 2017 at 08:04 PM.

  9. #9

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    wb
    Posts
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