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  1. #1

    Which is the best forecast site?

    So I get up before sunrise this morning for my usual Dawn Patrol and check the forecasts before heading out the door. I couldn't check the cam because it was still dark out, but I look at the buoy - which is 1/4 mile from my break. It is saying approx. 5.4ft significant and 8.2 maximum @10secs, but I don't completely trust it because it has been reading a little high (IMHO) since it's last maintenance.

    The forecasts are so different from each other that I don't know what to make of them... I usually check SI and SL, but today I looked at MSW as well because of all the hoopla, even tho' their closest break to me is an hour or so away.

    Here are the screen grabs from all three and a couple of pictures of the surf. Who do you think came closest to a correct forecast?

    Screenshot (13).jpgScreenshot (14).jpgScreenshot (15).jpgDSC_0003.jpgDSC_0002.jpg

    (IMO, MSW is an automatic fail for not having a forecast for my part of the coast, but I stuck it in there for shigs and tiggles)

    Disclaimer: I am NOT the guy in the speedo. I just took the photo to get a perspective of the wave size with someone on it!

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    In a state of flux
    A few years ago i did a 30 day analysis of various forecasting sites (sadly I no longer have the data) but MSW was freaking laughable. SI and SL were very close with a small edge to SI. This was for NJ/DEL/MD only.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Ocean City
    dont think i can judge it from two pictures. MSW sucked for so long that i dont even check it anymore and havent for several years. surfline has been overforecasting everything recently. SI has been pretty spot on. Im in Ocean City NJ.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Ocean County NJ
    I wouldn't be here if SI didn't do the best job.
    I guess you had some fun today regaurdless.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Doug View Post
    I guess you had some fun today regaurdless.
    Yep, so much so that I haven't had a chance to post : Five days of surf and finally had to take today off because I was starting to get tired.

    24th - Hadn't surfed in a week. Head high, windy and messy so went to the kiddie break where it's wind protected and was waist to chest.
    25th - Wind coming down but couple feet overhead and messy. Back to kiddie break.
    26th - Back to my usual spot. Head high and crowded (Sunday. 20-25 people.). Semi bumpy but oh so nice! Rights not lining up but some quick fast lefts. I'm goofy so it's all good.
    27th - Maybe a foot overhead and only six guys out. Super fun.
    28th - A little smaller with set waves around head high, a little longer between sets, but lining up beautifully and consistently. Three different peaks lining up into one long awesome right with a four to five minute paddle back.
    29th - (Today) Much smaller - maybe chest high? Windy. Tired. Drove by before daybreak, thought about paddling out, watched some guys get some, went home.

    As for the forecast? I think SL may have been the most accurate, consistently calling for 4-6 ft (shoulder high to 1ft overhead), but SI was close enough and free! No one got the wind right this week. The wind forecasts are correct for the afternoon, but they were always wrong in the morning.

    Sorry about the long, pseudo journal entry, but man it's been a fun week and I figure with all the Belmar hashtags, I should talk up my warm, clear, water.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Treasure Island , FL
    I was down there too but I sure have a different take on Friday the 24. Where were you surfing. I was in Rincon friday and it was double overhead, 7 ft at 13 seconds I believe. I dont care what the report says, If i see a guy riding a wave and its twice his height, its freakin double overhead. By Friday eve it was solid DOH. We went to bridges to get some relief on friday as we had been up all night and I just didnt have it in me to charge that. Sat the 25th we surfed dogmans with 2-4 ft OH on the sets, offshore got to use the new Rich Price channel bottom. That thing flies, I love it. Maybe a tad too much rocker as you had to take off pretty late to get em but once your up it really tracks and handles well. Surfed wildo sun, mon & tues, all head high. the repot ranged from 2-4+ (SI) and 2-3 Tuesday but head high sets. All in all a great trip. SI was the best forecast. MSW is a joke. Even Rincon surf report was calling flat for Sunday and called it a magical pulse, although we knew it was coming. Then Monday Rincon Surf Report said another magical pulse when SI had it at 2-4. Kudos SI

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    sea level
    SI and Surf Guru my local choice anyway.

  8. #8
    From my analysis between msw nesurf and si I find this one to be the most accurate. Most my surf buddies use msw though lol.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    East Coast
    The guy in the pic has awesome shorts. As for accuracy, I use both SI and surf line

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by NickM View Post
    The guy in the pic has awesome shorts. As for accuracy, I use both SI and surf line
    I had a chance to talk to him in the lineup the next day. Nice guy. He came here from HI for a longboard competition last weekend and won the 60+ age group. The pic doesn't show it, but he was walking up and down and hanging off the nose nicely. 62 years old and going strong. I was tired after three hours and left - he kept going and was there again the next day and the next. Told me he's been surfing for forty years. I only hope I have that stamina at that age. Maybe a speedo would provide some kind of aerodynamic benefit that will improve my surfing?