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  1. #11
    "93L is looking better organized this morning, and the models are slowly converging on an area between TX and the Florida Panhandle, with potential impacts as soon as Tuesday night those along these ares should monitor it closely.

    Expect a typical June sloppy system, but it is possible this could develop somewhat rapidly once in the Gulf, so it is very mportant to monitor it.

    Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to check the area out today."

  2. #12
    As of 2:00 pm EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 ...
    Surface observations and satellite data indicate that a broad low
    pressure area is centered near the east coast of the Yucatan
    Peninsula. This system is producing a large area of showers and
    thunderstorms along with winds to gale force several hundred miles
    to the east and northeast of the center. However, the low lacks a
    well-defined center of circulation, and the Hurricane Hunter mission
    scheduled for this afternoon has been canceled. Gradual development
    is expected while the low moves slowly north-northwestward across
    the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight, and then over the southern or
    central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, where a tropical or
    subtropical cyclone is likely to form. Regardless of development,
    heavy rains are expected over portions of Central America, the
    Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba
    during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
    aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Monday, if
    necessary. For more information on this system, please see the
    High Seas Forecast issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

  3. #13
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    near Texas
    CCMF, metard!

  4. #14

    93L 12Z rundown

    12Z GFS, starts getting it organized north of Cuba early tomorrow morning, then heads it up toward Southeastern Lousiana where the rain spits off to the east Tuedsay night into Wednesday, landfall sometime midday Wednesday on SE LA.

    GFS parallel is similar to the operational GFS just a bit stronger.

    CMC moves toward LA then turns a hard left toward Texas and rapidly weakens as it does.

    Euro is a slow westward movement and sloppy, eventually turns into Texas Friday morning near Port O'Connor TX.

    Recon this afternoon was cancelled since there is no obvious low level circulation right now.

    The center may be trying to form on the northeastern tip of the trough associated with 93L, near Cuba, which may shift things a bit, although is fairly in line with the GFS. Interesting to watch"

    You're welcomme this one is for our Gulf buoys

  5. #15
    "At 19/21Z, PTC THREE was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bret, the second named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Bret has become the earliest tropical storm formation east of the Antilles, and is one of only three on record to do so during the month of June at all in the MDR (Main Development Region).

    As of 19/21Z, Bret was located just east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles, at 9.4N 59.8W, and was tracking west-northwest at a very fast 30 mph. Recon found a central pressure of 1007mb and maximum sustained winds of 35 knots, or 40 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles, mainly north of the center

    * TOBAGO

    * ARUBA

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    near Texas
    It's gettin closer...

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Singer Island
    This is pretty darn early for stuff to be moving across the pond. If one comes across a bit higher in latitude, the lack of shear, and the lack of an embedded Bermuda high, could give us some dicey days ahead this summer.

    Be prepared!

  8. #18
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    near Texas
    I got a few extra candles for if the lights go out and another bar of wax for if we get some surf.

    I'm prepared.

  9. #19
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Singer Island
    Chocolate and chiba, check!
    Mosquito repellent, check!
    Rye in the bottle, check!
    Weeza beeza ready!

  10. #20
    "A tough one for forecasters to nail down, given its genesis as a product of a very broad monsoon gyre .. interacting with a tropical wave ... interacting with a diving upper level low ..

    The 4AM NHC discussion brings up the possibility of THREE never becoming a tropical cyclone, but instead getting designated subtropical later today. Especially considering its ongoing interaction with the upper-level low to its west - imparting moderate to high shear and injecting dry air - this makes a great deal of sense.

    On the other hand, the very last few frames from night vision IR suggest an effort by the cyclone may now be underway to align better with the deeper convection, convection which has been getting more robust since late yesterday. In this regard, it is behaving more like a sheared tropical cyclone. I personally lean more to this scenario, although not by a lot.

    In THREE's case, the distinction between subtropical and tropical is more than academic. While the greatest threat will be from heavy, tropical precipitation (flooding) either way, a better (or worse) aligned system could have significant track implications, in addition to the potential for the cyclone to result in an area of more concentrated, potentially heavier wind damage (TC), as opposed to a more widespread, but possibly less severe wind risk (STC).

    NHC will probably have a much better handle on its ultimate designation (Tropical or Subtrop) by this evening, but either way 'Cindy' appears to be a very safe bet. "