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Thread: Invest 95L

  1. #1

    Invest 95L

    Flhurricane.com:

    "
    A trough of low pressure in the tropical Central Atlantic is now being tracked as Invest 95L.

    While recent model support has been lukewarm at best, conditions for development are actually starting to appear to be somewhat better than those runs would suggest, and as of the 2AM AST Sat July 16, 2017 TWO, NHC has given this Invest a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 5 days.

    An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if necessary."

  2. #2
    From NHC:

    "As of 2:00 pm EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 ...
    A westward-moving trough of low pressure located about 1000 miles
    east-southeast of the Windward Islands continues to produce
    disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
    are marginally conducive for some development of this system before
    it reaches the Lesser Antilles in two to three days. After
    that time, less favorable upper-level winds are expected to hinder
    additional development. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
    aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Monday
    afternoon, if necessary.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    Formation Chance through 5 days...medium 40 percent."

  3. #3
    chugga chuggggggga WOO HOOO

  4. #4
    As of 2:00 am EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 ...
    A small low pressure system located about 800 miles east of the
    Windward Islands is moving westward at about 15 mph. Associated
    shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show some signs
    of organization, and environmental conditions are forecast to be
    marginally conducive for some development of this system before it
    reaches the Lesser Antilles in two to three days. After that time,
    less favorable upper-level winds are expected to hinder additional
    development. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
    scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if
    necessary.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

  5. #5
    And behind the infest, is Disturbance Two:

    As of 2:00 am EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 ...
    An area of disturbed weather has developed several hundred miles
    west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some development of
    this system is possible over the next several days while it moves
    slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest over the open Atlantic
    Ocean.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

  6. #6
    Flhurricane re Infest 95L:

    "The Atlantic now has two disturbances being highlighted in the NHC Tropical Weather Update. While not stated explicitly, it is possible that Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories may be issued later today on Invest 95L, and persons with interests in the Lesser Antilles may want to begin preparing for the possibility of heavy weather."

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Delaware
    Posts
    6,883
    Thank you Betty!

  8. #8
    Disturbance 1: 50% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
    As of 2:00 pm EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 ...
    An area of low pressure located about 525 miles east-southeast of
    Barbados is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph. The associated
    shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization
    since this morning and the system still appears to lack a
    well-defined center. Environmental conditions are conducive for
    some development before the system reaches the Lesser Antilles late
    Tuesday or early Wednesday. After that time, less favorable
    upper-level winds are expected to hinder additional development.
    Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally
    heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles
    beginning Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
    currently en route to investigate the disturbance.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

  9. #9
    Flhurricane.com:
    "The advertised DNA of 2017 favors development of named cyclones in the Main Development Region (A 'box' generally thought of as south of 20N, and from 70W to 20W). We are now watching not one but two new disturbances in this region: Invests 95L and another, TBD.

    As of 1:00PM EDT Monday July 17, recon is approaching Invest 95L, which has been looking more organized than yesterday, despite the appearance of struggling with some nearby dry air, as well as what is probably the diurnal convective minimum. Recon will be looking to see if 95L has developed a well-defined surface circulation and sufficient convective structure to be classified as a tropical cyclone.

    Interests in the Lesser Antilles should consider watching these. Of note, Invest 95L is a bit of a smaller incipient tropical cyclone, and as such, could intensify faster than a larger system would"

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Central FL
    Posts
    14,345
    It won't be long before a good one gets going, couple weeks I say.