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  1. #1

    This new wave could be the one


    A vigorous tropical wave that has emerged off the coast of western Africa is attempting to mere with an active Monsoon Trof, and is poised to become a strong tropical low or tropical cyclone while tracking west to west-northwest at a fairly low latitude.

    This feature has the backing of a wide array of TC genesis models, which is not surprising given its vigor, and the favorable environment it is in, and will likely continue to be in for the better part of its voyage west.

    This wave has the potential to become a serious hurricane and should be monitored closely.

    While not yet Invest tagged at the time of this entry, it will likely be assigned 90L or 91L within a few days, if not sooner. "

  2. #2
    Thanks Betty! Hope your doing well!
    Im looking forward to the surf picking up soon.

  3. #3
    As of 8:00 pm EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 ...

    A large and complex area of disturbed weather to the south and
    southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a broad
    trough of low pressure and a tropical wave.

    These systems are
    forecast to merge over the next day or two, and environmental
    conditions are then expected to be conducive for development of
    this disturbance later this week while it moves westward at about
    15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

  4. #4
    The local news is already talking about this one.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by fungus View Post
    The local news is already talking about this one.
    Pretty sure they got their tip from the SI forum

  6. #6

  7. #7
    "The 00Z cycle of model runs seem to be trending weaker (although we haven't yet heard from the Euro). The CMC does very little with it (although it really likes the wave behind it) and the 00Z GFS is considerably weaker.

    One thing that's a bit concerning is that the pattern in about a week should feature much more ridging in the western Atlantic than we have now with Gert so whatever kind of a system we have when it reaches 60-65W should have a chance to get much further west. Next couple days of model runs should be interesting to say the least. "

  8. #8
    we all dead

  9. #9
    This is now invest 91L

    "Much confusion with what and where is 91L this morning. Forecasting this system is going to be a problem unless and until (more likely until) there is really something we can hang our hats on. And it also remains very possible that the most interesting parts of the broad area of low pressure that the original 91L wave is starting to merge with ends up being tracked as two distinct disturbances. (91L and 92L, for example).

    NHC has shifted their initialization of 91L to the west this morning, now closer to the center of the low pressure trof, and less so the strong wave that just rolled off Africa, and which has not yet merged all that much with the trof. This will change subsequent model runs, probably not by a lot - but perhaps noticeably - from prior runs.

    As of 7:45AM EDT, the '91L' wave axis was located near 24W from 05N to 21N, with low pressure centered along the axis near 13N 24W.

    However, as of the 10:37AM EDT NHC graphic update, '91L' was positioned at roughly 12N 30W.

    And at 10:45AM EDT, NRL had 91L centered at 12.5N 33.8W, and by the next NHC graphical update, it could be this that is being tracked --- and this would be a very substantial repositioning of this Invest. Or, as noted above, we could have two separate Invests to track by this evening. "

    Betty: " also check my post on the Gert thread about how active this season has become in comparison to other years"

  10. #10
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Always appreciate the info! It's getting to be that time of year.