close ad [x]

Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 11 to 17 of 17
  1. #11
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Monmouth Beach, NJ
    Posts
    4,697
    Quote Originally Posted by NJsurfer30 View Post
    i'd be content with a couple clean head high or bigger swells a week in jersey and at least 300" in Killington, falling mostly on or immediately prior to the weekends, but not the ones that the waves are good in jersey.
    Content??!! That would be... a first. Let's just put it that way.

    Normally, we get "a couple of clean head high or bigger swells" a month. I'd say a "good" winter would be a clean swell a week. But you know as well as I do, sometimes we go 2-3 weeks with nothing but NW wind. That's when SI starts firing.

  2. #12
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Monmouth Beach, NJ
    Posts
    4,697
    Quote Originally Posted by MadeItStop View Post
    la nina like 2011-2012?
    if so warmer rainier weaker systems

    good for hurricanes, crappy for noreasters
    in nj this means less e and ne swells (read: none), and less frequent and weaker sse swells
    I could be wrong, but thats what 2011>>2012 was like
    From NOAA Climate Prediction Center

    For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18, a weak La Niña is favored in the dynamical model averages of the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] and North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) [Fig. 7]. Several models indicate a period of near-average Niño-3.4 values in the upcoming weeks, but then predict reinvigorated growth of negative SST anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These forecasts are supported by the ongoing easterly wind anomalies across portions of the Pacific Ocean and the reservoir of below-average subsurface temperatures. In summary, La Niña conditions are favored (~55-65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

  3. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by LBCrew View Post
    Content??!! That would be... a first. Let's just put it that way.

    Normally, we get "a couple of clean head high or bigger swells" a month. I'd say a "good" winter would be a clean swell a week. But you know as well as I do, sometimes we go 2-3 weeks with nothing but NW wind. That's when SI starts firing.
    Haha yeah I know, the "content" was a joke. That's basically the best case scenario I could possibly imagine.

    I really only have the past two winters as reference, those were the first two where I lived here and was actually dedicated enough to be on it for every swell throughout. I thought two years ago was pretty good, nothing massive but I remember all of January and February pretty much having one good head high or slightly overhead clean day per week like clockwork. VT had the worst snow year in history though, and the ensuing spring/summer of surf here was probably the worst I've ever seen. Last winter seemed pretty mediocre to me. Some nice early season swells especially on that really cold Sunday in early January but then February didn't have a single day that was bigger than waist high and clean (at least not that I saw, I did take one brief trip out of town).

  4. #14
    indeed LBC, I had seen that info before and maybe 20011>>2012 was strong la nina, but what I rememebr is the worst winter in recent memory, hope its not like that

  5. #15
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Location
    Typical swellinfo d*ckhead
    Posts
    1,345
    Quote Originally Posted by littlerhody View Post
    Anyone have any theories. Last winter wasn't good where I live but the previous three were super consistent and great. I look at farmers almanac but not sure that really means anything. Looking towards winter now that tropics seem dead. Thoughts?
    I'm going to say that no matter how great the winter is by snow totals, its going to be tough to build a base (yet again). The Northeast just doesnt go into the freezer for a few months any more. We're going to get the thaws and the rains in between snowfalls, and those who love the trees will be booking flights. Is there anything worse than winter fog?

    I think we still might get one or two lows coming up the coast from the tropics. I sure hope the winter is a good one for surf because I just went all in on a new winter rubber set up.

  6. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Riley Martin's Disgruntled Neighbor View Post
    I'm going to say that no matter how great the winter is by snow totals, its going to be tough to build a base (yet again). The Northeast just doesnt go into the freezer for a few months any more. We're going to get the thaws and the rains in between snowfalls, and those who love the trees will be booking flights. Is there anything worse than winter fog?

    I think we still might get one or two lows coming up the coast from the tropics. I sure hope the winter is a good one for surf because I just went all in on a new winter rubber set up.
    I do remember the first time I moved to Colorado for grad school having the realization that the biggest difference in snow quality out there vs. the East Coast, at least for the Summit County mountains closest to Denver and the Front Range, is not the amount of snow or even the water content but the fact that at 12,000 ft it basically NEVER rains between the start of November and mid-April. But you never know. Agree that the overall trend seems to be getting warmer but it still varies a lot year by year. I remember seasons in the early 2000s when we'd pull up to our house at 3 am in mid January and it'd be 65 degrees and raining in sheets.

    And more recently there've been some better years... still the occasional thaw and rain mid season but there've been recent seasons where the trees are good to go more often than not. I'm not a very reliable judge though.... as long as there's more white in there than brown/green, I will ski nothing but trees all day and I've trashed more pairs of skis than I can count at this point.

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    milton delaware
    Posts
    2,795
    Images
    272
    Quote Originally Posted by LBCrew View Post
    But you know as well as I do, sometimes we go 2-3 weeks with nothing but NW wind. That's when SI starts firing.
    everyone talks about winters, but when it comes to DEAD flat spells, some of the worst ever have come in January when we get three straight weeks of bitter NW wind. The ocean gets that wierd look where the horizon has heavy texture but near the beach there are 8 inch waves lapping...cruelly I might add....because they often seem to look like miniature peeling barrels in those conditions.