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  1. #1

    Disturbance east of Antilles

    Disturbance 1: 0% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
    As of 2:00 am EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 ...

    A strong tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the
    Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
    Upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of
    this system for the next couple of days as it moves generally west-
    northwestward to the north of the Leeward Islands. Environmental
    conditions could become a little more conducive for some development
    early next week while the system subsequently moves northward over
    the west-central Atlantic Ocean.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

  2. #2
    As of 2:00 pm EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 ...
    A broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of the
    northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and
    thunderstorms, mainly to the east of the surface low. Upper-level
    winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development
    during the next couple of days while the system moves west-
    northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and passes near or north of the
    Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands. However, environmental
    conditions could become a little more conducive for some development
    early next week while the system begins to move northward over the
    west-central Atlantic Ocean.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

  3. #3
    Quite the busy season to say the least. Thank you for staying vigilant Betty and keeping us updated throughout the tropic season. It's not over yet but definitely winding down.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by DonQ View Post
    Quite the busy season to say the least. Thank you for staying vigilant Betty and keeping us updated throughout the tropic season. It's not over yet but definitely winding down.
    Hurricane Noel (I think?) back in 2007 was in November and that was pretty suite!

    I'm sure there's been quite a few other late hurricane season swells in much more recent years, but I've missed many of them due to my work schedule during this time of the year. Noel was a pretty memorable one, for the swell it brought to Jersey. It was right after Halloween, so early November of that year.

  5. #5
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by eatswell View Post
    Hurricane Noel (I think?) back in 2007 was in November and that was pretty suite!

    I'm sure there's been quite a few other late hurricane season swells in much more recent years, but I've missed many of them due to my work schedule during this time of the year. Noel was a pretty memorable one, for the swell it brought to Jersey. It was right after Halloween, so early November of that year.
    Sandy formed late October and hit in November if I recall.

  6. #6
    As of 2:00 pm EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 ...
    A broad area of low pressure centered just east of the northern
    Leeward Islands is accompanied by numerous showers and squalls
    mainly to the east of the center. This activity is expected to
    spread over the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands today and
    Sunday. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for
    development during the next couple of days, but the environment
    could turn a little more favorable for some development early next
    week when the system begins to move northward and then recurves over
    the west-central Atlantic Ocean.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

  7. #7
    Disturbance 1: 30% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
    As of 8:00 am EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 ...
    The broad area of low pressure NHC has been tracking for a few days
    is now centered a little more than 100 miles north of Puerto Rico.


    The low is producing numerous showers and a few squalls mainly to
    the east of the center. Further development of this system, if any,
    will likely ocurr while the low and its associated activity move
    toward the northwest and north during the next two to three days.
    After that time, this system is expected to merge with a cold
    front.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by DawnPatrol321 View Post
    Sandy formed late October and hit in November if I recall.
    it Hit Oct 28th
    trow sum respek on Sandy

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Central FL
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadeItStop View Post
    it Hit Oct 28th
    trow sum respek on Sandy
    Close enough lol

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by DawnPatrol321 View Post
    Sandy formed late October and hit in November if I recall.
    I wasn't here for that. We evacuated to the then-fiance's sister and her husband's house, inland a bit in Forked River.

    I did have a couple good sessions right before Irene hit in 2011, but that was the end of August. We evacuated for that one too.