Invest 91L: Gulf of Mexico

Discussion in 'All Discussions' started by Betty, Jun 17, 2018.

  1. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
    As of 8:00 am EDT Sun Jun 17 2018 ...

    The combination of a surface trough and an upper-level low pressure
    system is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and
    thunderstorms over the west-central Gulf of Mexico.

    This system is
    producing strong gusty winds over the northern and northwestern
    Gulf. Environmental conditions do not support significant
    development, however, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to
    continue across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today.

    This
    activity will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana
    coasts later today. For more details on this system, please see
    products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts
    issued by the National Weather Service.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
     
  2. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Flhurricane.com:

    Some operational 0z June 16 model runs

    GFS - No TC. Trof only, crossing W GOM into TX over this weekend

    ECMWF - TD along MX coast south of Brownsville, TX by 0z Thursday. Deepens and slides south. Possible Cat 1 by next weekend near Tampico, MX

    CMC - Possible TD just offshore of Galveston, TX by 12Z this Sunday. Moves inland as a weak Low and near Dallas metro by 12Z Monday.

    NAVGEM - Possible TD just southeast of Brownsville, TX by 0z Thursday. Deepens and remains in the same general location through the end of model run. 995mb TS on 12Z Saturday June 23rd.

    ICON - 1009mb Tropical Low over or near Corpus Christi, TX by 15z Monday. Drifts around some and deepens to 1002mb by 09z Wednesday. Exits the state into Oklahoma by Friday. “
     

  3. Merx

    Merx Well-Known Member

    515
    Apr 4, 2018
     
    Betty likes this.
  4. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Nice Merx! Pics?

    Update of Cyclone Formation in 5 Days
    As of 8:00 am EDT Mon Jun 18 2018 ...

    Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf
    of Mexico are associated with an upper-level low pressure system
    interacting with a surface trough located near the Texas coast.

    Development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland
    over Texas later today and tonight. However, heavy rainfall and
    flash flooding across portions of southern and southeastern Texas
    are likely to continue during the next few days. For more
    details on this disturbance and the threat for heavy rainfall,
    please see products issued by your local weather office and High
    Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
     
    Merx likes this.
  5. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    This storm reminds me of a slow-gin fizz.....nothing to it.
     
  6. Merx

    Merx Well-Known Member

    515
    Apr 4, 2018
    lol...can't say I've ever traveled to TX for surf. One girl from there used to travel with me, though. We would hit CA and VA together. She could hold her own on a wave. Lost touch with her over the years. Prob some cams showing current conditions.
     
  7. La_Piedra

    La_Piedra Well-Known Member

    Oct 9, 2017
    Met my first Texas surfer on my first trip into deep mainland Mex back in '80. Being from Califas, I didn't even know Tejas had waves lol. But the guy shredded and his Hispanic wife was hot, they were from So. Padre Island which probably gets the best surf in the state. There's some great pics of the place on the 'net if anyone is interested.
     
  8. Merx

    Merx Well-Known Member

    515
    Apr 4, 2018
    One crazy bunch...certainly add a new dimension to the surf scene...