92L--- Irma?

Disturbance 1: 20% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 8:00 am EDT Fri Aug 25 2017 ...
A trough of low pressure extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico
over central Florida continues to produce a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although strong
upper-level winds could limit tropical cyclone formation, some
subtropical development is possible over the weekend or early next
week while the system moves northeastward over the western Atlantic
before it merges with a front.

Regardless of development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions of southern and
central Florida during the next few days. Please refer to products
from your local National Weather Service office for more information
on this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

 

1. A broad area of low pressure located near the west-central coast of
the Florida peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms over southern and central Florida and
the adjacent waters. This system is forecast to move northeastward
and emerge over the western Atlantic over the weekend where some
development is expected through early next week before it merges
with a front. Regardless of development, very heavy rain and
flooding is possible over portions of southern and central Florida,
and the northwestern Bahamas during the next few days. In addition,
this system is expected to cause increasing northeast winds and
rough surf along the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas through
early next week. Please refer to products from your local weather
office for more information on this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

 

"
Based on RGB now the low is traversing the state moving ENE away from Charlotte Harbor area toward approximately Vero on the east coast. "- flhurricane.com

 

Disturbance 1: 40% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 2:00 pm EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 ...
An elongated area of low pressure stretching across north-central
Florida continues to produce a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from the southwest coast of
Florida northeastward into the western Atlantic. Although
upper-level winds are not particularly conducive, this system has
the potential to become a tropical or subtropical depression
early next week after it moves off the northeast coast of Florida
on Sunday. The low is forecast to move close to the southeastern
coast of the United States and merge with a cold front by mid-week.
Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the low is expected to
cause increasing winds and rough surf along the coasts of Georgia
and the Carolinas through early next week. Heavy rain is also
expected to continue over portions of southern and central Florida
during the next day or two. Please refer to products from your local
National Weather Service forecast office for more information on
this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

 

"
GFS still tries to make something of this before landfall or near miss near Wilmington, NC on Tuesday, although there is no rain over central Florida, most of it is in South Florida or offshore of Naples currently.

Canadian and NAM is the only one forecasting significant strengthening "--flhurricane.com

 

Here we go

Disturbance 1: 70% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 2:00 pm EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 ...

An elongated area of low pressure, previously located over northeast
Florida, has emerged over the western Atlantic and is now located
about 60 miles east of the coast of Georgia.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have increased in
coverage and are gradually becoming better organized.

The low is likely to become a tropical depression or storm during the next
day or so before it merges with a cold front.

Regardless of development, the low is expected to cause increasing winds and rough
surf along the coasts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia
through mid-week.

A tropical storm watch may be required for a
portion of the coast of North and South Carolina this afternoon.
Heavy rain is also expected to continue over portions of the Florida
peninsula during the next 24 hours. Please refer to products from
your local National Weather Service forecast office for more
information on this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 

Flhurricane.com:

"92L may or may not soon merge with a front, but will contribute to inclement weather along the east coast, regardless. Near-term, 92L looks more tropical than sub-tropical, despite its close proximity to the front.

It is possible that a coming merger or just ongoing symbiotic interaction could serve to result in a developing strong cyclone that rides northeast - mostly just offshore, though possibly impacting the Carolinas hard or a brief period of time while on a likely track up into or passing Nova Scotia. The combined or interacting system may become a meteorological bomb off the northeast at some point, but hopefully while well enough away from New England.

Recon is on the way now"

 

Belmar-- 23'