99L may hit EC Florida as TS exit into gulf

Me too Dog. Dusted off the chainsaw today and it's ready for action, they still don't know if it's going up the EC of Fl, hitting Miami or what.

 

"
Quick ovrnight run summary:
Euro a bit stronger late tonight over Eastern Bahamas
Tomorrow night beginning to strengthen over Central Bahamas,
Saturday night, stronger (Strong TS) near Nassau
Landfall S. Florida (Miami/Homestead) late Sunday night (Strong TS or Cat 1 Hurricane, strengthening).
Gets into Gulf and just offshore Ft. Myers/Venice beach Monday night second landfall in the east Panhandle (and over Tallahassee) late Tuesday nigh as a cat 2 or possibly 3.

The earlier runs basically verified tonight with the system still weak but beginning to show signs of convection.

GFS: Keeps it weak over or just south of the Keys, into the Gulf and landfall in Eastern Panhandle as a depression/Tropical Storm.

HWRF struggles to keep up with it, manages to keep it south of Florida through the straights, no real development until the southeast Gulf where it forms into a Tropical Storm, end run has it a Tropical storm several hundred miles west of Key West in the Gulf.

CMC strong Tropical Storm or Hurricane into West Palm on Sunday Morning, keeps the system over or near Central/North Florida until Thursday.

NAVGEM has trouble latching on, but rides it up Florida as a weak storm.

Bottom line: Needs to be watched for Florida, Euro is a bit stronger, but consistant with where it puts the storm with the last two runs. GFS/HWRF still seem to be tripped up by the double circulation vortexes. "--flhurricane.com

 

Was hoping for a great Frankie post! Thanks Valhallala!

Flhurricane.com: "If 99L can survive in one piece after its visit to the DR, then it may have it in it to attempt to rapidly organize once back out over very toasty waters, and likely in a more favorable upper air environment, than now. This scenario is definitely possible, given its tenacity.

Should it break into bits, then it may have to start back over, once again, almost from scratch and end up being more of a blustery rain maker over the next few days - although with a flooding threat. "

 

Not a waste of time if you live in Florida. You need plenty of lead time to fix the chainsaw, find the shutters and clean them up, get extra food and water supplies, trim dangling branches, put your important pics and papers in safe places , stock up on gasoline, secure the workplace, and the list goes on and on,....if you wait too long, the grocery shelves will be empty and the gas stations will have long lines. You can't evacuate either if you wait too long. The roads become gridlock....

 

The 26/00Z GFS is a real trip - but no longer will I discard it. Takes 99L as a weak system through the Florida Straits then NW up to southeast LA then east along the north Gulf coast, drops southeast and makes landfall vicinity Tampa Sunday evening Sept 4th as a weak TS, crosses over to Melbourne on the 5th, exits into the Atlantic a short distance then turns northwest making landfall near the GA/SC border in the evening on Sept 6th - again as a TS. With all of the weird things that this system has done so far, I'm not about to doubt any of it

Beyond the odd triple landfall in MS/Tampa and South Carolina of the GFS.

HWRF starts moving the system to the keys early Sunday morning, Forms into a Tropical storm at or just west of Key West Hurricane in the Gulf by Tuesday morning. Cat 3 in the Central Gulf early Wednesday morning.

Euro:
Weak system (not even depression) into S. Florida from the south late Sunday night, rides up the middle of Florida, over Orlando Monday night as a rainmaker out by Jacksonville late Tuesday night.

--flhurricane.com

 

"
In all likelihood, Invest 99L has been just-about-'callable' twice, already (and if it does get named, perhaps there will be consideration once the season is over to add some of its earlier incarnations to its track). Today, the parent wave we have been tracking as Invest 99L, with its associated pouch (P21L), has developed a new LLC, a little further north of where the old one was, and in a much more favorable location for organizing:

1) Closer to the peak vorticity of the parent wave - at its apex)

2) More removed from the detrimental air flow disruptions, dry air and subsidence of northern Hispaniola, and

3) Over progressively warmer waters. Additionally, shear is already relaxing, and is forecast to continue to drop from last night's brutal 20-30 knots, to under 10 knots by tomorrow night.

Looking ahead - It is becoming clear that the upper atmosphere is turning somewhat favorable for development in the Atlantic basin-wide, especially so in the Gulf and Caribbean, with both the Madden Julian Oscillation and Collectively Coupled Kelvin Wave phases simultaneously turning supportive for the first time in quite a while.




In summary, 99L development odds of only 20% during the next 48 hours may prove very conservative. "

-Flhurricane.com