Accuracy?

Discussion in 'Northeast' started by LeftForMe, Apr 27, 2014.

  1. HARDCORESHARTHUFFER-RI

    HARDCORESHARTHUFFER-RI Well-Known Member

    Sep 17, 2013
    if you dont know how swell decays from your bouy to your spot you are doing it wrong
     
  2. leetymike808

    leetymike808 Well-Known Member

    752
    Nov 16, 2013
    Dont try to help him, or suggest anything. It just makes him angry that other people either try to help or just know more than he does. Then he tries his hardest to call you names over the internet forum.
     

  3. Special Whale Glue

    Special Whale Glue Well-Known Member

    Oct 8, 2011
    Man, you're dumb. 9.5@12.9 E is not going to decay to 6.7@7 E in that short distance.
    Today, the surf was way bigger than what was forecasted (I'm fine with that btw). My intention, as stated, was to help the accuracy of the forecast through the "spot on" feature that I can't get to work. That's it.

    I have a very solid grasp on how the 44066 measurements translate to most beaches in this state regardless of the 75-100 mile distance from shore (that's not far in terms of swell). I live at the beach, and don't miss many swells, year-round, so it's easy for me to compare the buoy to the beach, and I verify the measurements with the shoreline religiously. I'm on it, like flies on sh!t. You're blindly barking up the wrong tree, SharkJizz.

    I don't know who sh!t in your burrito SharkTard, but you're way spun out lately and you continue making a fool of yourself. Stop being a little Shunt or f~cking beat it.

    Love, Doug
     
  4. shark-hunter

    shark-hunter Well-Known Member

    Apr 29, 2012
    LOL
    Man....you can't read. Did I quote you when I said short period swell decays quicker? Did I say that swell was short period? I'm perfectly familiar with the fact that 13 seconds is not short period. Stop trying to Bull****.

    Every swell(even with same period/height) is different in how it will decay in the last 100 miles to shore. That's what makes it unpredictable. 3 feet at 8 seconds might be flat one swell or waist high another with same direction at same break. We are right back to where we started Einstein. If you had a little intelligence you'd undertand that. You're on my ignore list so no need to argue with me anymore. I really don't like me people on internet forums. I think I'm just going to post and then not read replies :)
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2014
  5. Sandblasters

    Sandblasters Well-Known Member

    May 4, 2013
    dude shark why you go to block people. come on man he was calling you out be a man and charge these threads like eddy. you show him whos boss. but dont be like hey man your blocked ;] thats just gay. you tell him your not even going to block him and let him sit in your spew.
     
  6. SI_Admin

    SI_Admin Guest

    Just to chime in here...

    The forecast is what it says it is, a prediction.
    Buoys are real time measurements, so unless the instruments on the buoy are broken, it is true representation at that particular point in space and time.

    When considering what the next day or days will be, of course, the forecasts are of value. When considering what the conditions are right now or how the predictions compare to what is happening now then the buoy measurements are of tremendous value. I always look at the buoy data, and specifically the Swellinfo station data map that gives you spatial representation of all the buoys without having to click around.
     
  7. metard

    metard Well-Known Member

    Mar 11, 2014
    doug vs shark-hunter ..... dance off

    post video
     
  8. Hayduke Lives

    Hayduke Lives Well-Known Member

    241
    Mar 28, 2014
    Yes, you can. I have always used the montauk buoy along with the block island one to get a better idea of whats going on here in rhode island
     
  9. shark-hunter

    shark-hunter Well-Known Member

    Apr 29, 2012
    Exactly. 75-100 miles offshore is far different in many swells than what is happening at the beach.
    Just look at any wave height map. You can see swell degrading. A buoy is a tool. It would be a MUCH better tool if it sat 1 mile off the ri coast. It doesn't. It's in the middle of the ocean therefore on many swells it can be reading something completely different than at ANY break in RI 100 miles away. You can NOT simply rely on buoy data when deciding if there's swell and how big it will be. Marginal swells like 3 feet at 8 seconds can and do fall apart on certain swell events. Larger stuff can reduce in size on some swell events. That was my point and remains the same. Other than driving to the beach, nothing compares to a hd cam, followed by spotter reports, followed a distant 3rd buoys.
     
  10. shark-hunter

    shark-hunter Well-Known Member

    Apr 29, 2012
    You do realize how far from RI that is? It's just as far as station 44097. Montauk/far eastern LI is MUCH more swell exposed(swell doesn't have to travel as far) to many south swells than RI. RI is tucked in. Basic geography.
     
  11. SI_Admin

    SI_Admin Guest

    For RI, they key factor is swell direction. It is a relatively small swell window as compared to other areas, so if the buoy is off shore aways, it will be much less impacted by the restrictive swell window.

    Swell decay is not really the right term here. Swell decay is loss of wave energy in a given swell due to the physics of the energy traveling through the ocean. Loss of energy due to the ocean bottom is different, we could call that dissipation.
     
  12. Special Whale Glue

    Special Whale Glue Well-Known Member

    Oct 8, 2011
    [video]http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/jan.gif[/video]
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2014
  13. shark-hunter

    shark-hunter Well-Known Member

    Apr 29, 2012
    Micah, let's get real! :) You know exactly what I'm talking about. I might not be using correct terminology since I'm not a weather scientist like your are, but
    I'm talking about the fact that there is a difference in many swells between wave height at block island buoy vs RI SHORELINE.

    I'm talking swell decay as it travels over distance. Lets say swell starts off hateras in the open ocean, it starts at 10 feet, correct?(just throwing a number out) By the time it hits RI, then size will decrease. As it travels over distance from source(once it leaves the area of fetch) its wave height starts to decrease.
    So there are MANY instances where a wave height of 3 feet could occur 50 miles off block island, but by the time it travles another 75 miles the wave height has decreased, especially if there's offshore winds which also beat it down over distance!
    Micah, explain to me this: 3 feet at 8 seconds at station 44097 DUE SOUTH with offshore winds
    One time can be flat. Next time can be waist high. Same exact break/tide/ect. Anyone who's been doing this for any length of time has seen this happen. There's a reason Nantucket would be generally be bigger on that swell if it's closer to source.
    Anyone can just look at a wave height in the ri graphical forecast and see the decrease in wave height over distance. This is not just a matter of exposure, but a matter of distance and that wave height decreases as it travels. It's like taking a surf report from a mysto island break 50 miles south of block island on a due south swell and saying that is the EXACT same wave height at RI shoreline. Obviously that is not true on many occasions. Especially with offshore winds beating it down over the extra 75-100 miles the waves will have to travel.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2014
  14. shark-hunter

    shark-hunter Well-Known Member

    Apr 29, 2012
    The size of the area of fetch will also determine period as well as how close the waves are and chances of swell impacting the surf zone in any given area. It's impossible to figure out every time how much it will decay just based on local knowledge of a break and looking at a buoy. There are other factors at play here. Then it becomes a forecast based on how far away the waves were generated Thus, it's unpredictability for some swells by just looking a buoy.

    It should be common sense that what is going on way offshore is not necessarily what is going to be impacting near shore waters even assuming proper swell direction due to wave height decreasing over distance once it leaves the area of fetch/winds. The farther away you go, the less likely a correlation between the buoy and the beach. If we had a buoy 1 mile offshore, we could be golden.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2014
  15. yankee

    yankee Well-Known Member

    Sep 26, 2008
    For the luvva wayne's gawd, shark stunter, leave poor Micah alone & why not go play with the buoy in your toilet tank, come back in 6 months with a full report on the swell there.
     
  16. nynj

    nynj Well-Known Member

    Jul 27, 2012
    44097 is 32 miles from Rhode Island (PT. Judith)... I say use Montauk buoy also because it gives a fairly accurate forecast. I've used it when traveling north and always had success.

     
  17. shark-hunter

    shark-hunter Well-Known Member

    Apr 29, 2012
    Point judith is super exposed(for ri). Other breaks are even farther. Station 44097 is 23 miles southeast of south side of block island. Block island south side is about 14 miles south of RI. So yes I exageratted a little for point judith. I never looked up exactly how far out. That's still WAY out in the ocean and the point remains the same. A buoy to be truly reliable for near exact wave height should be located a mile offshore.
    3 feet at 8 seconds at station 44097 can easily turn into 1.6 feet at 8 sec(flat basically) by the time it hits some ri breaks including point judy. Seen it happen numerous times especially on an offshore wind. No way or predict this just by looking at a buoy. Next time it won't fall apart and will be 3 feet at 8 seconds and waist high at the beach. It's probably because waves were generated a little closer.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2014
  18. shark-hunter

    shark-hunter Well-Known Member

    Apr 29, 2012
    True. RI is tucked in for sure. We need to get rid of long island :)
     
  19. nynj

    nynj Well-Known Member

    Jul 27, 2012
    It's really not far out though. Every near shore wave buoy is in that range (25-35 miles)...

     
  20. shark-hunter

    shark-hunter Well-Known Member

    Apr 29, 2012
    Yes I know! Their not meant for surfing! Their for mariners! Somehow this ABSURD discussion by these people starting a flame war is that you can't simply rely on a OFFSHORE buoy and wave height can decrease over that distance! Really my only point!