I know it's kind of soon to speculate, but 99L seems to have a good shot at becoming a Storm and to possibly give us swell next week. Most of the computer models also develop the wave behind it. Any thoughts?!
The shear and SAL in the atlantic basin are going to tear this storm apart. The next one however might have a better chance. This is the time of the year where all the models get a little crazy with the tropical waves coming off of africa so be informed and watch each wave closely.
I heard it had a bit of dust to its north to contend with, but that shear was expected to remain around 10kts for at least the next 48 to 72 hours, that would be favorable for slow development. Although that was several hours ago. It has lost some convection, but now seems to have a closed surface circulation. If it can refire some storms this evening and maintain them, we may have T.D. Two by tommorow afternoon, but then again even if it does, it's got ways to go before we can think about swell. It's hard not to get exited this time of year and I'm BORED!
T.D. TWO, going by the NHC's projected path, it seems like it will go north of the Islands meaning definite swell, if it can fight the dry air and strengthen.
Yes, stoked, we are likely to see Ana named in the next couple of days... But, it needs to pick up a lot more strength before it sends us anything significant from way over there.
My guess is it will go north and out to sea starting this weekend. I wish it would stick the same heading for a bit. It is early, but the NHC is projecting a northern turn on the 5day map. Typically in the past, that means the northeast will get a large fetch, but a no go for the south east. It will be way too far north of PR and that is out of our window. Looks like this high sitting over us is going to steer it way out. We actually could see a little bump but don't cash in on it.
The closest high pressure is over Louisiana and Mississippi (http://tinyurl.com/b7bm6) , that would be close enough to affect goings in the middle of the atlantic? Well at least weather underground has it both strengthening and with a 2/3 chance of coming right towards us.
Expect to see that projected path moved further to the south at 5:00pm. It will definitely be in our swell-gate unless something weird happens. The question is will it be strong enough to give us some sizeable surf. I think we could at least see a little bump from it, even if it never strengthens or disapates, the remnants riding under the Bermuda High should produce enough of a fetch to enhance the trade-swell. Late this week-end and early next week we should have rideable surf.
Am I the only person noticing the huge tropical development on the wave height maps that begins to develop around the 15th? That's what I think will give us the REAL swell.
Yep, that's the wave behind it and massive by comparison. According to Wunderground all the reliable computer models are developing this into a hurricane. It's exiting Africa right now. Check out the satellite images on Wunderground.
Here is the Swellinfo Hurricane Center Satellite: http://www.swellinfo.com/tropical/index.html?config=&forecast=pass&pass=tropsatellites®ion=NT&sattype=clir&anim=1
F U C K you all for jinxing this storm. go to hell, because if you keep talking about it, then we're never going to get waves, and im going to be forced to masturbate all day long for lack of anything to do. so help me, if it dies down, bodies are going to drop.
Ohh... Shut Up. EVERY TIME WE GET SWELL, IT WILL INEVITABLY DROP A LITTLE BEFORE REACHING US. IF THERE WASN'T FORECASTING AND CHEST HIGH SURF CAME AND YOU HAD NO IDEA THAT IT COULDA BEEN OVERHEAD, YOU WOULD STILL BE STOKED. Besides, everyone of us is bored out of out little surf-starved minds.
i keep telling them this but they dont listen. and thats the same thing i do when im not surfing and its flat. jk
Don't worry guys, you'll get a break from spanking it, and when it goes flat again it will be just like being twelve years old again , a win/win situation.
