“The 6z GFS run is west of the earlier one, and closer to the Euro, it takes the system up through the western side of the spine of Florida, albiet weaker than before. A large rain event in this one, but still with a chance of Tropical Storm development. Wed/Thursday would be when it started consolidating in the west Caribbean, over Cuba Friday Afternoon, Key by late Friday/Early Saturday, Rain for Central/south Florida all of Saturday, with potential for short-lived tornadoes. North Florida and Georgia gets most of the rain Sunday, and Carolinas Toward Monday. The system remains inland in this model run once it gets over Florida. Still a messy/sheared system, but very much worth watching this coming week. Ensembles seem to trend a bit west this run. I'm thinking more west currently based on climatology, which means flooding rains for Florida, unfortunately. I'm not sold on it becoming anything more than a tropical storm if it managed to stay away from land. ” Flhurricane.com
“Not too much has changed with the models since yesterday, split with a messy system (non-tropical) moving over/just to the east bringing some rain to Florida on the GFS and Euro showing a messy system into Louisiana. Tropical Development chances are pretty low, but it still is worth watching over the week. Judging by how the euro performed in high shear situations like this in the past (normally I'd go for Euro), I'm more apt to favor the GFS (but with more Florida rain), no tropical development, and again a lot of rain and maybe a few short lived tornadoes. EPS has a 50% chance for development, but in any case gusty winds and rain for somewhere along the gulf. “-flhurricane.com So, that likely concludes this thread.
