Another Storm Prediction

Discussion in 'Weather and Surf Forecasting' started by UnfurleD, May 25, 2017.

  1. UnfurleD

    UnfurleD Well-Known Member

    Jul 13, 2016
    Expect above-average Atlantic hurricane season, U.S. forecasters say.
    The Atlantic Ocean could see another above-average hurricane season this year, with 11-17 big storms and as many as nine hurricanes, U.S. forecasters said on Thursday.
    The expected absence of El Nino, an ocean warming trend that tends to reduce the likelihood of hurricanes, is a major reason for the expected rise in the number of storms. Other factors include above-average sea surface temperatures and weaker vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.

    An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes.

    "The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center.

    The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

    "Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms," said NOAA, referring to tropical storms with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher.

    Five to nine of those storms could become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher.

    Two to four hurricanes are expected to be "major," meaning Category 3 or higher, with winds of 111 mph or more.

    Already, the eastern Atlantic has seen a rare, pre-season storm, Tropical Storm Arlene, which formed in the eastern Atlantic in April. save your strength over the summer fellas
  2. Clownface

    Clownface Well-Known Member

    Jan 24, 2017
    Next person who says El Nino or LA nina I'm punching in the face; sike.

    But naming winter storms is lame. I like to sit outside and give names to clouds.

    OCMD needs a hurricane to blow clean our Sholes, soon they will reach 100th street
    Last edited: May 25, 2017

  3. headhigh

    headhigh Well-Known Member

    Jul 17, 2009
    I just heard this on the radio. In my experience, when they say this we end up getting nothing all season. I bet we get zero named storms and no decent swells thru November (anti-jinx in full effect)
  4. Clownface

    Clownface Well-Known Member

    Jan 24, 2017
    Hurricanes just destroy good ground swell anyhow
  5. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Sounds as if the NWS is once again listening to Al Gore and his bullish!t about "global warming"....
    Lower Manhattan was supposed to be 8-10 feet underwater by year 2012, said his book. And Hurricanes were supposed to be massive in both size and count. Manhattan underwater yet???
  6. sigmund

    sigmund Well-Known Member

    Dec 7, 2015
    I disagree, I just checked the beach and there are already waves.
  7. fl.surfdog

    fl.surfdog Well-Known Member

    Dec 6, 2010
  8. Kyle

    Kyle Well-Known Member

    Sep 9, 2011
    Say What? This has not been my experience here in South Florida. The best swells I've seen are from Cat 1-3 storms that run up the coast a couple hundred miles off-shore. Hurricane Sandy, Earl, and Irene were all killer swells for the entire Florida coast for the most part.

    I'm curious as to your logic on this one CF?
  9. fl.surfdog

    fl.surfdog Well-Known Member

    Dec 6, 2010
    Don't be curious...there is no logic in that statement.
  10. headhigh

    headhigh Well-Known Member

    Jul 17, 2009
    from a hurricane?
  11. Zeroevol

    Zeroevol Well-Known Member

    Jun 22, 2009
  12. nopantsLance

    nopantsLance Well-Known Member

    Aug 15, 2016