Code Blue (Balls) FUcast

Here is my code. This is a few lines of about 3500 lines of code for HHI. This is applicable to any region, you just have to change the degrees based on the angle each beach faces.... It is very simple. This is one filter of about 25 of them that will actually determine.... You break wind angle into degrees in incriments of 5, with regards to wind speed, a 3 MPH will suffice. Because 9MPH wind and 11 MPH don't make MUCH of a difference... But yeah, that is generally how I have always done it. And although Micah and I and EVERYONE suffer from similar problems, I.E. Most NOAA Buoys will take 5-8 hours sometimes to re-ping their info, but as soon as that info goes life, its rather simple to break it down.... Said this many times on here, because the CA data is almost always wrong as far as red, blue and green.


The following code goes into play through the AI once it has determined that this is a steep NNW wind.

$SHORE = "Sideshore/Offshore";
if($WSPD >= 0 && $WSPD <= 5) {
$COND = "Clean and Glassy";
$CONDIMG = "images/cond_clean.jpg";
}
elseif($WSPD > 5 && $WSPD <= 9) {
$COND = "Semi-Clean";
$CONDIMG = "images/cond_semi.jpg";
}
elseif($WSPD > 9 && $WSPD <= 13) {
$COND = "Textured, Bumpy";
$CONDIMG = "images/cond_text.jpg";
}
elseif($WSPD > 13 && $WSPD <= 17) {
$COND = "Very Textured";
$CONDIMG = "images/cond_dis.jpg";
}
elseif($WSPD > 17) {
$COND = "Victory at Sea";
$CONDIMG = "images/cond_vic.jpg";
}

 

straight off shore in delmarva....sw, or wsw, or w, or wnw...maryland a bit less tricky w/wnw, virginia
nw or n or even ne.....can't be easy....

 

Most Buoys that have solid swell and wind data dont store tides as well, which has always caused a problem for me, because I can iframe of mask data from another buoy, but the variables are not recognized. So, it's VERY hard to hard code in factors with regards to tide, because most buoys that give out the swell data lack a proper TIDE reading.... There is not ONE buoy anywhere near here that does both. Otherwise, I or Micah could make a DEADLY accurate forecast or report, but that opens up pandoras box of "Do we really want to let lazy people know EXACTLY how the surf will be and when, or do we let those of us that know these things use them to our advantage." I think the answer to that is clear, as we have discussed it many times.

 

What do you consider the threshold of too much offshore? I usually code in that anything over 15MPH offshore is going to dramatically affect wave size, power and swell decay but could still handle a green indicator, as it were. Anything over 22MPG is just a fight against the elements and would drop to blue to red depending on how you look at it.

 

Given that wind speed/direction forecasts more than 36 hours out are still pretty unreliable, especially in areas prone to sea-breeze, and a 30 degree variation in wind direction makes a huge difference in surf quality once the wind speed goes above 10-15, i'd say "DEADLY accurate forecasts" of "EXACTLY how the surf will be and when" are pretty far beyond anyone capability.

 

Sorry, I had to. LOL

 

Correct. But from a reporting standpoint, it is 100% dead on, every single time. At least at my location since that is where I can actually verify the data. Yes, when you are more than 48 hours out, the info is a crap shoot, and even the night before. I can't tell you how many times I see 30MPH winds predicted for the AM, I get there and its like 5-6 MPH variable wind. Happens all too often, and it really doesn't get accurate until that 24 hours mark or under, but from a preparation standpoint, you should be able to wake up at 6am on any given day and know exactly where you stand. I guess my question for Micah would be, do you greens, reds and blues actually update in real time? Because from where I see it, it looks like if the day before it calls for Red in the AM and red in the PM, but conditions clean up rapidly, the graph will show you the real live data, but if you look over at the section that shows AM and PM, it will stay in what was pre designated. I would need verification on that.... Maybe I am wrong, but it seems that way from where I stand.

But I am just saying, if you could program the rising and falling tide data, I could NAIL the forecast for the most part, with some wind factors up in the air.... But I can't grab the tide data to apply it. I have the code all done for it. There is a three hour window before high tide that will give you a true reading on the surf. Anything before that, you have to reduce size by $surfsize x .05 and so on.. Then once high tide actually hits, you slowly decrease the actual predicted size by the hour and once it drops a couple hours to that falling tide, the surf HERE AT LEAST, drops by %50, then %75 and then a few hours before and after low tide it is just flat to ankle to matter the swell. It's a lot of variables that act differently in every region, but here, I have figured out the science behind it, there are just a few hurdles with regards to applying it.

FOr instance, Swell Info will tell us the high tide and low tide, but on the graph, during that 5-6 hour range where the tides are not favorable, the graph still indicates that it will be chest high, when it most certainly will not be.

 

A similar discussion came about a few months ago, with regards to "making things better" and I think the general consensus was that Micah knows that he could add a few other tricks to his coding to make life easier for the masses, but since this is such a heavily used site, the ramifications of doing so may not be desired for the surfing community in most regions.

And I think Micah's current respond also points in that direction. He said, the information is right there in front of us, it's all about how we look at it and what we do with it. If everyone agrees to get a huge green light and mass message to all to report to 48th street on OC MD because it's firing, he could do it. But, you know.

 

I don't know... Wool hat sounds kinda hipster

 

Well, I gotta keep the noggin warm so I can make smart decisions

 

Yes unless you want to end up 2 miles down the beach or 2 miles out to sea or worse yet, shark food. eekk Big Kahuna is out there!

ww.ocearch.org

 

God damn Lochness Monster

 

Spotted.

 

They give the sharks those names and it makes them sound so harmless.