TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Gonzalo, located several hundred miles east of Newfoundland. 1. A low pressure system has developed over the extreme southwestern Bay of Campeche just to the southeast of Vera Cruz, Mexico. Some gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while it moves east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent. 2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a couple of hundred miles west of the Canary Islands. This system is producing gale-force winds, and the low could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics during the next several days while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over relatively warm waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent. Forecaster Stewart
This from flhurricane.com. " Quote: Some models are suggesting a lowering of pressures in the SW GOM/BOC in about 7 days. I think if the mainland gets a hit this year it will come from something like this... The NHC finally mentions this in the Outlook, and I believe this one may be worth watching for south/sw Florida even, but still lounge territory. It has a pretty impressive visible circulation already. "
That's a strange thing to write when "the mainland" already has had a landfalling hurricane this year when Arthur struck North Carolina as a Category 1 in July.
Yeah, maybe they meant Fla. My guess is they just forgot about Arthur, since the first week of July seems like another whole season at this point. But yeah, every year by the second half of October the main risk of east coast hurricane landfalls becomes those hybrid storms that spin up in the western Gulf/west Carib and come north like Opal in 1995 and Wilma a few years ago
Yeah Wilma was a crazy storm. We had lost our house in Jeanne and were living in a rental. Wilma came along and toppled a tree onto the garage roof. It was a surprisingly powerful storm.
Gulf potential is looking stronger TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Surface and upper-air observations indicate that the low pressure system located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche is gradually becoming better defined. This system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the next two to three days while it moves slowly eastward to east-northeastward, before it interacts and possibly merges with a frontal system towards the end of the week. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon, if necessary. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent. 2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW. Forecaster Stewart
I hate watching invest's cause it gives me butterflies were gonna get some swell and usually end up with my thumb up my butt smoking a doobie with no surf
Gulf? Did somebody say GULF?!? Oh man... Paging Nat Kitchen... Mr. Kitchen... Dust that board off... We might get some... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche are currently limited. This system still has the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days while it moves slowly eastward across the southern Bay of Campeche. Later in the week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge with a frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
