Danielle

it looks like it will most likely stay off the coast and stay in the atlantic, but we could still get some swell from it, hopefully it comes a bit closer than it is showing

 

looks like our first open atlantic ocean hurricane is miss danielle

 

hopefully she will please us well.

 

Look mostly at the Swell period graphs 14-15 seconds

 

All the models are showing her passing east of Bermuda. Gonna have to reach Cat 4 to send even a decent bump our way from that far out.

 

Some forecasters think the predicted path is overly optimistic, and calling for the possibility of a hit to bermuda. Also the upper level anticyclone that is moving into place will effectively turbocharge this storm.. going to be interesting how it plays out

 

great post

great post, lots of good stuff if you just keep clicking and reading. i especially like this one.
http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcact/cur/tc.act.climo.llmap.2010.nhem.htm
it's basically a map created from a database for all tropical activity in the atlantic (global, actually) since 1979. it would be really awesome to see data from 1938/44 when those really big ones hit, but i guess that stuff doesn't actually exist...

 

Atlantic annual tropical storm/hurricane tracks back to the 1800s are here...i would be a bit skeptical of the accuracy/completeness of the data prior to 1900 since it was based almost entirely on ship reports and large parts of the atlantic are outside of the shipping lanes.

And your right ... 1944 does look pretty nasty

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/hurrarchive.asp

 

What? Cat 4? Look at Colin's strength and track....and what it provided.

 

Haha ya seriously it can be Category 1 and we'd definitely see some overhead waves

 

The waves from TS Danielle will also be determined by fetch and duration and which side of the storm is the strongest (e.g., SE vs W). If she is a slow moving Cat 1/2 between the 25 to 40 latitudes then we can expect some nice swells, but they will be longer period...

 

Colin passed by us to the west of the Bermuda (68 W). Unless it's a pretty strong storm our swell window is typically 65 W. When I originally posted the models showed TD 6 track recurving around 55W. In order for a storm that far away to make swell for us it has to be pretty strong (ie lots of fetch). TD 6 will not get as close as Colin but the models are now showing it possible that it could reach 65 W.

 

Regarding 1933

Regarding 1933...the "Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane" looks like it came pretty darn close, though not a direct hit per the map. The only thing that sucks about this whole interesting thread...it only exists because there aren't any waves!!!

 

Looks like things are gonna get interesting after Midweek . Keep in fingers crossed and my hope within reason

 

**** College if theres good waves I'm coming home

 

Now thats what I call giving it the old college try

 

guys listen we need to stop getting excited. but all i know is thank god i have early release from school.

 

check out next weekend. This thing is definintely going to generate some swells.