Disturbance drifting to FL EC from Cuba

Disturbance 1: 20% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 8:00 am EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 ...

A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba to the Bahamas is associated
with a broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low.

A weak area of low pressure is likely to form from this weather system
while it moves northward across Cuba and near the east coast of
the Florida peninsula during the next few days, and environmental
conditions appear conducive for development before upper-level winds
become less favorable early next week.

Regardless of development,
this system is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over
portions of Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the
Bahamas during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

 

Flhurricane.com:

"
This disturbance has been Invest tagged 99L as of 1800 today, and the title has been updated. At that time Invest 99L was analyzed to be centered near 23.3N 79.6W. Maximum sustained winds were light at about 20 knots, with min pressure of about 1012mb.

NHC 5-Day development odds up to 50% ... sort of a similar setup as Tammy (2005), although not as clear that it will ride up and/or form right along the Florida east coast (but favored). "

 

Disturbance 1: 40% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 2:00 am EDT Fri Sep 29 2017 ...
A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea northward across Cuba to southern
Florida and the northwestern Bahamas is associated with a broad
surface trough interacting with an upper-level low.

A weak area of
low pressure is likely to form from this weather system later today
and move northward near the east coast of the Florida peninsula
through Saturday.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some development of this system during the next couple of days,
before upper-level winds become less favorable Saturday night or
Sunday. Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of central and western Cuba,
the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and the northwestern
Bahamas during the next several days.


* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

 

It's center drifted a bit to the left in Florida just now.

And, there is a new disturbance that's creeping toward PR eventually, Bahamas and florida perhaps, but too soon to say if it will even develop. Don't take your shutters down yet.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

 

It's drifting more to the west again. It's over the Keys now