Disturbance 1: 0% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 2:00 am EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 ... A strong tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of this system for the next couple of days as it moves generally west- northwestward to the north of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development early next week while the system subsequently moves northward over the west-central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
As of 2:00 pm EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 ... A broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the east of the surface low. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development during the next couple of days while the system moves west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and passes near or north of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands. However, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development early next week while the system begins to move northward over the west-central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Quite the busy season to say the least. Thank you for staying vigilant Betty and keeping us updated throughout the tropic season. It's not over yet but definitely winding down.
Hurricane Noel (I think?) back in 2007 was in November and that was pretty suite! I'm sure there's been quite a few other late hurricane season swells in much more recent years, but I've missed many of them due to my work schedule during this time of the year. Noel was a pretty memorable one, for the swell it brought to Jersey. It was right after Halloween, so early November of that year.
As of 2:00 pm EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 ... A broad area of low pressure centered just east of the northern Leeward Islands is accompanied by numerous showers and squalls mainly to the east of the center. This activity is expected to spread over the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands today and Sunday. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, but the environment could turn a little more favorable for some development early next week when the system begins to move northward and then recurves over the west-central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Disturbance 1: 30% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 8:00 am EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 ... The broad area of low pressure NHC has been tracking for a few days is now centered a little more than 100 miles north of Puerto Rico. The low is producing numerous showers and a few squalls mainly to the east of the center. Further development of this system, if any, will likely ocurr while the low and its associated activity move toward the northwest and north during the next two to three days. After that time, this system is expected to merge with a cold front. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
I wasn't here for that. We evacuated to the then-fiance's sister and her husband's house, inland a bit in Forked River. I did have a couple good sessions right before Irene hit in 2011, but that was the end of August. We evacuated for that one too.
Disturbance 1: 40% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 2:00 am EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 ... A low pressure system located about 100 miles east-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands is gradually becoming better defined. Associated thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little better organized this morning, and gale-force winds have been occurring in squalls northeast of the center. Some development of this low will be possible during the next day or so while it moves generally northward over the western Atlantic. However, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation by late Tuesday, and the system is likely to merge with a front and become extratropical on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
