El nino and the Eastcoast

Hey!! I communicate with style, distinction, dignity, all appropriate for this site!!
I am, after all, a top not commumumumunicator!!!

 

Looks like we have a winner: ties in with El Nino, in a sense.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjbPi00k_ME

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/06/s...=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&pgtype=article

You can always count on big petro to lie, cheat & steal on their way to record profits. Now they've set the bar at a new low by actively & knowingly destroying our planet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8ii9zGFDtc

 

A-fking-men herrmano.

 

More hogwash from the nyc democrats looking for money to feed the mayors welfare programs in order to buy votes. To date, they are "allegations" only. Will NYT print a retraction if they are found to be free of guilt?? I doubt it.

 

Deffinitly agree with that. But hey, there's a possibility of another storm forming! Check Bettys thread. And as far as summer goes, it wasn't terrible in my opinion. I still got a decent amount of surf in.

 

Guys, El Nino can be a good thing for US East Coast Surf in the winter. As the Subtropical Jet Stream becomes stronger, and can lead to greater cyclogenesis further south. What this means is frontal systems going further south, dipping into that Gulf moisture and hopefully riding up the Southeast Coast and pushing South swells up the East Coast.

When i was a senior in undergrad, i did a small research project correlating El Nino winters to stronger storms systems off the US East Coast. El Nino lead to stronger offshore systems, then in neutral or La Nina years.

So, thumbs up from me.

 

SI, how many did you study? How did you correlate the duration between episodes (El nino only occurs every 7-10 years)? I think the premise is right on though...depends on how much cold air is being pulled down from up North as that Jet Stream drops and interacts with warm moist air. Think about all the lows that come across the country during the winter and get swept up to NE and dump snow o//n Barry. I would love to see that "Low Train" have them popping off the SE/Midatlantic one after another for the next four months!!!

 

The Abandonner returns!

 

It was a minor research project my senior year, so it wasn't super sophisticated, but I was looking for strong low pressure systems off the Mid Atlantic. I honestly, forget exactly, how I measured it, but I looked at a ton of historic weather maps.

 

We don't need lows riding up the coast, heck with the south swells I need N.E. swells....haha, we need lows a few hundred miles off shore.

 

This from James Wieland - surfing weatherman in Palm Beach, FL

EL NINO AND LONG RANGE SURF OUTLOOK(updated 11-04-15):

El nino is a strong el nino event at the moment. It's different than the 97-98 in that the warmest water is farther back west than right along the south American coast.
Good news is the winter should be above average for surf. The winter season will see a lot of southern track storms, Cool and wet for Florida which means frequent storms rolling by, and frequent chances for swell. However, the NAO will still be the key factor. If it doesn't go negative this winter, that won't allow the full potential of the el nino and winter surf season to be realized here. Having a negative NAO through the winter means all those big storms rolling through the south and east will move offshore, instead of just hugging the coast. This of course will allow for good groundswell generation through the winter. The past couple winters had mainly a positive NAO and look at where that got us. Although the NAO can't really be predicted more than two weeks out, It's looking like cooler than normal water temps in the north Atlantic(with warm water south of it) will help push the NAO negative more this winter than the last. It still looks like this winter will be slow to kick in, as originally stated here. Not much in the way of cold weather November and December, but then kicking in January-March. But as we've seen already this season, we are still getting good runs of waves without the cold.
With the jet far south by January, this will keep winter storms moving quickly. So we may see raging windchop one day, with a nice clean-up the next, then another one on the way. In other words, consistency and a little bit of everything. Windchop, groundswell, refraction swells....We will see a lot of it all mixed in which will make for a pretty consistent winter surf season.
Again, in general, it looks like winter cold will get a start, but really kick into gear January-March with below normal temps and above normal rainfall and cloud over expected for the southeast. Also el nino winters see more tornado activity in Florida January-April so we could see some nasty squall lines accompany each front that moves through.
After the winter, good waves might continue into the summer.... I've researched the past 5 or so el nino years and found the Summer after the el nino is very active in the tropics. Good for wave, bad for getting hit though. Hopefully we'll get a bunch that stay out to sea and none that hit us!
So all in all the extended forecast looks real good for surf for the next year!

For more updates, Follow me on Twitter and Instagram for in the field and on the go updates: @surfnweatherman

 

Previous El Nino years mean frontal boundary swells for the east. The best kind of swell for beachbreak IMHO. A-frame peaky swells without ridiculous wind when timed right. The warm november is already on and the wet is here now on my favorite south facing beaches. Nobody out and pretty much a swell a week through the springtime and relatively warm water. Clearly remember surfing a lot in winter during every Nino cycle since 86-87. Good sessions on the way. Then the tropics turn on the following season....Woo hoo!!

 

Megagedon... Thanks for the laugh on a rainy Monday!

 

http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/a...ocations-official-15-16-atlantic-wint_133370/

Here is a pretty solid look at the El Nino "forecast" for the East Coast by Mark Willis.

 

Just rubbed one out to that.

 

He does make sound like we have much to look forward to. Willis is on his game too! BTW, don't you know that will make you blind

 

I had my safety glasses on

Man, it would make up for a lackluster tropical season, although I'm pretty fn stocked on my last two sessions.

 

i think yous gotta start by separating the coast into regions...compared to a few years ago ne has been shyte for about a year now with the exception of the occasional low, winds, tides all lining up just right (mid week this week was an example)

an even easier answer is to look at what has been happening, what is happening (across the country) in terms of patterns, systems, etc and then get your own outlook....

i'd say the ne outlook continues to be bleak with a decent, 1-2 day swell (at least waist+ with good winds and tides) only every 3-4 wks, or even fewer or farer between...

last late Jan when we got that first system i thought maybe things had changed, but every system we got in feb-apr seemed to blow south but suck in upper fockin cold, and then pull off shore with said fockin cold winds blowin off shore at 25-30+ and then when the winds died the system (and it's wave juice) was already at nazare

also, any good wave makin spot that was remotely close to a rivermouth (which is all of them) would be cut up with currents because of the amount of fockin precipitation

some years are just bad...find a way to make due - i'm gonna get a spear gun and eat more fish

 

Neither climatologist not meteorologist can predict the weather more than 48 hours out.
Predicting what El Nino will bring "for the winter" is arrogance, stupidity, imbecility, and moronic beyond all reason. One of the Seven Sins -- pride.
So far, they have been 99.99999999% wrong.
After all, isn't Manhattan supposed to have been 12 feet underwater by now due to "global warming"??? (Read Al Bores book--it says that it was to happen by 2012, at the very latest.).

 

Not sure about Climate Change as it is a slow moving phenomenon one way or the other is anyone's guess.

Local Weather Patterns are quite predictable. It's done daily. I use a 5 day forecast all hunting season (dew points, barometric pressure, wind, rain....May not predict exactly where the first rain drop is going to land and the exact time but seems predictable to me.

The hard part with El Chico is that they occur so infrequently. But, what I think willis was trying to do was establish a trend line, not necessarily predict the swells arrival (height size etc). He even admits that in the piece.

I don't know what is going to happen but it seems based on at least some knowledge of El Ninos...that it gives us hope for more consistent surf this winter. Again, dreams are a good fun!!!