Erin models relative to future predictions?

Discussion in 'Weather and Surf Forecasting' started by sisurfdogg, Aug 15, 2013.

  1. Aug 15, 2013 #1
    sisurfdogg

    sisurfdogg Well-Known Member

    5,399
    Jun 17, 2013
    I have noticed for the last year, that the European models have been way more accurate regarding predicting the tracks of developing storm systems. So far this year it has been the same, with the GFS being wrong, the Canadians wrong, and the European model pretty much spot on. And I have noticed the NHC is giving the GFS suite more weight than the Euro suite for some reason (funding?), during their initial predictions, only to turn the storms to the right, to the right, to the right. Yo, weather dudes....what is up wit dat? Are our computers that slow compared to the Euro trash supercomputers? Huh? HUH?

    Just a dumb ole Florida boy watching and wondering.
     
    sisurfdogg, Aug 15, 2013
    sisurfdogg, Aug 15, 2013
  3. Aug 15, 2013 #2
    sisurfdogg

    sisurfdogg Well-Known Member

    5,399
    Jun 17, 2013
    "It don't take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows"
     
    sisurfdogg, Aug 15, 2013
    sisurfdogg, Aug 15, 2013

  5. Aug 15, 2013 #3
    Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    5,504
    May 19, 2006
    It is well know that the Euro out performs the GFS by the folks at NCEP/NOAA.

    One advantage the Euro seems to have is the quality/quantity of input observational data that is fed into the model. This is more easily consumed by the Euro as it only runs twice per day, in contrast to the 4 times per day GFS model (less time available).

    Apparently the folks working on the GFS have identified some steps to bring it up to pace, so we'll see.
    Unfortunately, the Europeans, aren't as social with their weather data.
    I've looked into pricing of data from the Euro, and the data I was looking for was going to run around a half million dollars annually.
     
    Swellinfo, Aug 15, 2013
    Swellinfo, Aug 15, 2013
  6. Aug 16, 2013 #4
    Dudicles

    Dudicles Well-Known Member

    87
    Mar 30, 2012
    That's more overpriced than a 1.2 million dollar surfboard! No wait, no it's not.
     
    Dudicles, Aug 16, 2013
    Dudicles, Aug 16, 2013
  7. Aug 16, 2013 #5
    Sniffer

    Sniffer Well-Known Member

    1,186
    Sep 20, 2010
    You mean the ad of the girl with the big tatters wearing a Tshirt that says "Ive Pooped today!" Doesnt bring in enough dough for you to afford the Euro?...cmon
     
    Sniffer, Aug 16, 2013
    Sniffer, Aug 16, 2013
  8. Aug 16, 2013 #6
    sisurfdogg

    sisurfdogg Well-Known Member

    5,399
    Jun 17, 2013
    Thank you for your reply. It just seems that the National Hurricane Center gives too much weight to the GFS models. Are they getting funding from these wonks? Do they all own stock in Home Depot or Lowes? Just wondering. I wish I got paid for being wrong at least one third of the time.
     
    sisurfdogg, Aug 16, 2013
    sisurfdogg, Aug 16, 2013
  9. Aug 16, 2013 #7
    Erock

    Erock Well-Known Member

    2,257
    Aug 6, 2011
    Wait... Erin's a model too?
     
    Erock, Aug 16, 2013
    Erock, Aug 16, 2013
  10. Aug 16, 2013 #8
    M.R.gnar28

    M.R.gnar28 Well-Known Member

    105
    Oct 30, 2012
    Can you reply with a link to the Euro models? I love storm tracking but sounds like I'm using inferior resources.
     
    M.R.gnar28, Aug 16, 2013
    M.R.gnar28, Aug 16, 2013
  11. Aug 16, 2013 #9
    newenglandflatness

    newenglandflatness Well-Known Member

    285
    Oct 12, 2012
    GFS is run by NWS, seems natural they'd give their own model more weight
     
    newenglandflatness, Aug 16, 2013
    newenglandflatness, Aug 16, 2013
  12. Aug 16, 2013 #10
    Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    5,504
    May 19, 2006
    The NHC definitely uses the Euro model.
    If you read their discussions they talk a lot about the different models.
     
    Swellinfo, Aug 16, 2013
    Swellinfo, Aug 16, 2013
  13. Aug 16, 2013 #11
    sisurfdogg

    sisurfdogg Well-Known Member

    5,399
    Jun 17, 2013
    The NHC discussions usually mention the Euro model, but they always give more weight to our homegrown data. Pride and Prejudice. It is good that we do have lots of info available, and it is like sports forecasters. If you pay attention closely, you know which sources to trust. I will give Swellinfo props for giving me lots of accurate forecasts. Forecasts are by nature a prediction, and even the tide predictions can be off due to wind and other conditions. Better than nothing. I just like to keep things in proper perspective, especially when it involves breaking out the storm shutters and making hotel reservations inland.
     
    sisurfdogg, Aug 16, 2013
    sisurfdogg, Aug 16, 2013
  14. Aug 17, 2013 #12
    kpd73

    kpd73 Well-Known Member

    228
    Jan 30, 2013
    Ok...^ That was REALLY funny. Thanks Sniffer.
     
    kpd73, Aug 17, 2013
    kpd73, Aug 17, 2013