Finally, new storm off of Afrika!!

Discussion in 'All Discussions' started by Barry Cuda, Jul 27, 2016.

  1. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Good job Barry!

    Here is what the buoys at say

    The first cape verde type wave of the 2016 Hurricane Season, 96L, has a 20% chance to form into a tropical storm or depression over the next 5 days, and about a 10% chance to form within the next two.

    This system is far from land and has a great deal of hurdles to overcoming as it crosses the Atlantic. This is fairly early, but not unheard of, for a storm from that region to potentially form, It currently is located just west of the African shoreline moving west.

    Most of the models don't develop it much, or really keep it alive for terribly long, but weaker long-track systems tend to track more southerly so it will be worth monitoring over the next week or two. It is possible other waves may show up next week as well. Things may transition to being very busy by Mid-August.

    One of the largest factors likely to keep this system weak, or possibly tear it up later is the high level of SAL (Saharan Air Layer) present right now, in fact it's the cause of it being lost by some models. This high SAL should fall apart by mid-late August, which opens the door to things becoming busy then.

    There is plenty of time to watch 96L, and the possibility of other systems into August. The best window for development is in 2-4 days, after which favorable conditions for development drop off considerably. It likely will struggle to make it all the way across the Atlantic, if it does.
  2. DonQ

    DonQ Well-Known Member

    Oct 23, 2014
    Now that's a forecast drop.
    Thanks Barry, I mean Betty!

  3. fl.surfdog

    fl.surfdog Well-Known Member

    Dec 6, 2010
    Good job Betty and Barry, things are a changing....chooo-chooo, couldn't happen soon enough.
  4. BassMon2

    BassMon2 Well-Known Member

    Jan 27, 2015
    Barry tried to out betty, betty. But betty out bettyd barry. Thank you betty. Take notes Barry. If your going to try to pull off a betty do it right.
  5. Valhallalla

    Valhallalla Well-Known Member

    Jan 24, 2013
    Fukin A.
  6. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
  7. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
  8. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Go Betty!! She is back!!
    I defer to Mademoiselle le Betty!!
  9. Valhallalla

    Valhallalla Well-Known Member

    Jan 24, 2013
  10. 2FUN

    2FUN Well-Known Member

    May 10, 2016
    Everyone go to the coast today and INHALE REALLY DEEP! Maybe we can pull it this way?
  11. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    As of 8:00 am EDT Thu Jul 28 2016 ...
    A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is producing an
    area of showers and thunderstorms about 400 miles southeast of the
    Cabo Verde Islands. Some development of this disturbance is
    possible during the next few days while it moves westward or
    west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. However, environmental
    conditions are expected to become less conducive for development
    early next week when the system is over the central tropical
    Atlantic Ocean.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40
  12. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
    F'ing A
  13. Zeroevol

    Zeroevol Well-Known Member

    Jun 22, 2009
  14. StuckontheGulf

    StuckontheGulf Well-Known Member

    Apr 23, 2012
  15. cepriano

    cepriano Well-Known Member

    Apr 20, 2012
  16. nynj

    nynj Well-Known Member

    Jul 27, 2012
    It probably has AIDS
  17. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Here is the latest:

    97L, a wave west of 96L, is now being tracked, it was picked up by some of the models yesterday. This has a 30% chance for development over the next 5 days.

    96L has a 40% chance for development over the next few days.

    If 97L impacts the Leewards/Northern Caribbean timing would be on this Sunday."

    Some of the meteorologists say that if it survives crossing the Atlantic, and the important word is IF, it may have a shot at Foorida Straits, Cuba and Florida. Soooo, keep watching. Maybe we will get a little bump out of it. It's too soon to say.

    But, as I promised Barry, it looks like August is going to be busy. The Atlantic is starting to wake up. As Frankie might say, "get your water, your cans of food, your gasoline, your batteries and your tarps ready".
  18. dreko

    dreko Member

    Sep 20, 2012

    Pics Betty... pics....

    ScreenHunter_496 Jul. 28 18.38.jpg
    ScreenHunter_495 Jul. 28 18.36.jpg
  19. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Nice visuals. Alas, I have no idea how to upload pictures to a bulletin board. Glad you put these up. Sounds like the weather channel is really hyping this.
  20. fl.surfdog

    fl.surfdog Well-Known Member

    Dec 6, 2010

    Betty waiting on the storm.