lets be honest here, is the GFS data altered to drive up web traffic?? I was reading the forum and it seems like all the websites want is webtraffic from surfers so they are making these crazy-assed forecasts this is at 360hr out, looks like this will cause some web traffic 4 storms at the same time in the atlantic ^^PROFIT!
I really don't get this. This site is one of many tools I use to make sure I hit a swell dead on. I never see a swell more than 3 days out and count on it. Nature's too fickle. Maybe within a ten hour window the decision gets made. Drives my wife nuts. I don't click on the ads, or even read them. Well except the time on a Wavejet ad. But it was for laughs. Do other sites do funky things to drive traffic? You bet. Facebook snags over 1500 pieces of your personal information as soon as you "like" something. There is some major things going on in the cloud that are freakin scary. This all said - I find this site pretty darn accurate a lot of the time. A fantastic FREE resource and these paranoid posts are a waste of time.
What the heck is the point of this? I come here to check out swell and to see what other similar interested minds are talking about in the forums.
The gfs model wants web traffic from surfers???? Go into the lineup and ask your average surfer the last time he checked the latest gfs run. LOL Most of the people using this model data are weather nerds, scientists, government agencies, and meterologists. The model was never designed to hype things, though it does to that in the long range forecasts. You just learn to ignore. No real reason to check the gfs runs anyway. This site does a fantastic job of interpreting the model and putting out an incredibly detailed forecast for so many locations.
you all do realize that if you run a 360hr forcast model 1mil times it'll give you just about every possible scenario imaginable right? I mean the known variables are current observation, and from there your dumbass passing gas while reading this affects what might happen 1 hr to 360 hrs later so a model run this minute has only a guess as to how your fart in the wind will affect things going forward, and if ran enough times surely one of those models will be correct in its assumption. Problem being you don't know which one until it happens, but the closer you get to the event the less unknown variables you have and can narrow the range of possibilities, which is why you can't do much else but cross your fingers and hope that the 1 model that shows 4 storms is the correct 1 360hrs from now. By the way i've made my tinfoil hat and am systematically buying up all the bottled water, batteries, canned food, etc. in the SJ region, so lets go Gordon, Helene, Isaac, and Joyce I wanna get some clean barrels before the apocolypse!
By the way what will the media call it? If 2 ft. of snow is "snowmagedon", what is 4 hurricanes? I can't think of any good ones right now, but i'm confident someone on here can.
it looks like we should start seeing some swell filter in by sunday 8/19 if everything holds together
sorry, bad joke. flatness getting to me. GFS 16-day doesn't matter. What it is telling us is what we already knew, that a burst of African activity is coming due to the pattern this year and the MJO spiking into phase 2.
According to Jeff Morrow on the weather channel this morning, the GFS has backed way off of this system from earlier.
The GFS is a 0.5 degree resolution model out to 192 hours updated 4 times per day, and then goes to 1 degree resolution out to 360 hours. There is a considerable decrease in reliability passed the 192 mark.
