Gulf Disturbance

Discussion in 'All Discussions' started by Betty, Jun 11, 2018.

  1. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    “A tropical wave over Venezuela and a surface trof east of Nicaragua interacting with an upper-level trof that is sagging into the SW Atlantic is resulting in an area of disturbed weather today. Additionally, there is a possibility of a monsoonal gyre setting up in this region over the next several days, and NHC has now placed 20% odds of tropical cyclogenesis within 5 days - primarily favoring the NW Caribbean to SW Gulf of Mexico.

    The operational GFS has been most bullish forecasting development in the Gulf this week, with the experimental Parallel GFS and individual members less so. However, there has been some genuine buy-in from those, including more recently additional support from several other global models.

    This region is climatologically favorable for tropical cyclone formation this time of year, and the way things are setting up, 20% could be conservative.. even if development does not occur within 5 days, chances for tropical cyclone formation in this general area may persist for the remainder of the month.

    Steering currents suggest that should a TC develop, it would likely be steered inland from roughly Tampico, Mx to Louisiana (and just to emphasize the point, there isn't much yet to hang a forecasting hat on to help pinpoint any eventual track).

    Regardless of development, this pattern often results in blustery tropical downpours from eastern Mexico into Texas. A messy and/or slow moving system could exacerbate associated flooding risks. “—
  2. JayD

    JayD Well-Known Member

    Feb 6, 2012
    How's it Betty? Hope you are having an awesome day. Thanks for the update.
    Betty likes this.

  3. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
  4. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    As of 8:00 am EDT Tue Jun 12 2018 ...
    A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
    western Caribbean Sea is associated with a trough of low pressure.
    This area of disturbed weather is expected to move westward to
    northwestward over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during
    the next couple of days, and little development is expected during
    that time due to unfavorable upper-level winds.

    Environmental conditions could become slightly more conducive for some development
    when the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the
    end of the week. Regardless of development, this disturbance will
    likely produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua,
    Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
    DonQ likes this.
  5. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

  6. Merx

    Merx Well-Known Member

    Apr 4, 2018
    Should have dropped some of that cash to travel...

    Betty likes this.
  7. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Travel to surf?? Meh...sorta gets old when you are old. Actually gets LAME.
    For me, once a year--I already booked my PR trip.
    Betty likes this.
  8. JawnDoeski

    JawnDoeski Well-Known Member

    Aug 11, 2014
    Oh Burry stop frontin you said that last year

    You ain't gong to PR and if you do you'll go for guided horse back tours with your wife and surf the marina in Rincon
    Betty likes this.
  9. Merx

    Merx Well-Known Member

    Apr 4, 2018
    Free beer, tequila, margaritas, chips w/ salsa fresca and guacamole for less than $5k/night (off season rate), all with your name on it at Villa Bellissima. They were even going to toss a butler in there to satisfy your wife, Barry.
  10. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Nah--been there twice, long before it developed into yuppie paradise.
  11. Merx

    Merx Well-Known Member

    Apr 4, 2018
    Been eight years since I was last in the Baja Peninsula, but wouldn't mind heading back for Todos. Have yet to check for any, but imagine some surf vids will eventually be uploaded from their storm, if not already.
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2018
  12. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Todos would be nice as a "swan song" to surfing. Takes too long, however, to get there from here. Never surfed it, but it was always on a bucket list, along with Cortez Banks. Maybe in my next life......
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 13, 2018
  13. La_Piedra

    La_Piedra Well-Known Member

    Oct 9, 2017
    todos can be a fun place around 6'-8', but I never really wanted any part of it above that.

    Ever heard of Isla Natividad? Kind of a similar experience, without the whole Killers/Mavericks thing. Right point, hollow left beach break bowl and all day Nica-like offshores. Pretty fun if you can stand being stranded on a windy cactus strewn islet with absolutely nothing to do but surf.
    DonQ likes this.
  14. Merx

    Merx Well-Known Member

    Apr 4, 2018
    Never been. Typically never recalled much from Baja... When looking at pics/vids, usually had to ask where what occurred... countless times nobody was quite sure...

    Do recall having to bail mid adventure. We had been in some coastal village on a cliff with treacherous access down to the break, when I received the call. I made my way back to the border, while the caravan continued south toward Todos. Soon sent me vid...reeeeally hated them for it ever since... That's the reason I wouldn't mind heading us back there, but we've pretty much always ended up new places, so far.

    I like you Barry, you seem alright, but I have to draw the line at the thought of sharing a "swan song" with you...ain't happenin, BIGLY noooooo. Now, if Carbon Media pimped that swanky villa out to 12 of us on here for 30 days, along with a yacht to carry us out to the reef up at Todos, and 12 matching black Hummers equipped with bullet proof glass for us to annihilate, I might consider playing along. That would make for yet another absurdly entertaining "flick", but I intend for my swan song to be another time and elsewhere.
  15. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. A surface trough located over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing
    disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

    This activity is expected to move west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula and over the
    southwestern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday. Development,
    if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur due to strong
    upper-level winds.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.