Magicseaweed states that on monday 8/29 it will be 15.5ft at 6am then 2ft at 10 seconds at 12pm...a drop of 13.5 feet in 6 hours? silly magicseaweed...
cool, well I'm gonna stand on the beach at 6 am and whine about how it's too big to paddle out and then paddle out at 12 and complain that it's too small.
MSW is a very popular site. It must be spot on in Europe or something because it sure isn't here. They use the same data that other sites develop forecasts with, the swell model is sh*t though. At least for our neck of the woods
yeah, the only reason i ever use that site is to check all the historical swell data... although the data isnt 100% accurate, its pretty close and its cool to compare your beach to all the others in the nation/world to see how much swell other guys get (or dont get) each month etc over a 10 year period.... Some places will shock you!
that site has lots of cool pictures too. thanks to magicseaweed i know what waves look like in a lot of places around the world
Look at South Beach forecast on here, 15 foot at 8PM and flat .08 feet at 2AM. I have seen tons of hurricane swell die in a few hours over the last 25 years.
i think it would make more sense for south beach cause it is on the bottom tip of florida, this having a weird angle as the storm moves rather quickly up the coast. And plus, it looks like the bahamas are blocking most of it.
This is what happens when a storm travels close to shore. The swell jacks up, then gets beat back down as the storm passes north of you, with the heavy offshore winds. Also when it is close the duration of the swell (how long it lasts) is shorter regardless of the wind.
For my location (seaside NJ) I see the following Peak Swell Heights: MSW: Sun 8.5 ft at 13 sec Swellinfo: Sun 17.1 ft/13 sec Are you all going to rip on swellinfo now for overstating the prediction? These storms are really hard to call even when a few days out. This thing is almost a week away. Predictions are probably gonna change 10 times over by the time the weekend comes.
FYI....swellinfo now has the Sunday peak swell heaight at 8.5 at 14 sec. Same peak height MSW had yesterday morning. Not taking anything away from swellinfo, because I think its great, but MSW seems to be doing a pretty good job forecasting for my location. Both are pretty much forecasting the same thing now. Both are forecasting an insanely quick drop in swell with some serious offshores for Sunday. Still, 4 days out alot can and probably will change. I really hope this thing makes a sweeping right hand turn and stays at sea...
Like many state on here now and in the past, forecasting is great but often times nobody gets it right, i.e. Earl last year. Every site missed that epic Friday cleanup! Nothing beats putting your own eyes on the ocean for forecasting.
Also, I've personally had good luck with the storms that run up the coast real close, or brush further south and then run up and out close in. I guess the combo of the harder south angle, the slightly lower period, and the offshores on the back side/pull out seem to keep it from closing out as bad. Although this one is predicted a little close for comfort.
