Harvey regenerating

Discussion in 'All Discussions' started by Betty, Aug 23, 2017.

  1. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    News Flash: NHC says 100% likelihood. Watches for Mex, Tex and Louisiana.


    Disturbance 1: 100% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours

    As of 8:00 am EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 ...
    Satellite images, reconnaissance data and surface observations
    indicate that the remmants of Harvey are close to redeveloping into
    a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico about 150
    miles west of Merida, Mexico. Advisories will likely be re-initiated
    at 10 am CDT on this system.

    The low is forecast to move to the
    northwest at about 10 mph across the western Gulf of Mexico,
    possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday.

    This
    system is likely to slow down once it reaches the coast, increasing
    the threat of a prolonged period of heavy rainfall and flooding
    across portions of Texas and Louisiana into early next week. Harvey
    could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force
    winds along portions of the Texas coast later this week, and
    Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required later today
    for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and
    southwestern Louisiana.

    Interests in these areas should monitor the
    progress of this system and refer to products issued by your local
    National Weather Service office for more information.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
     

  2. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Flhurricane.com:

    "
    Overnight model runs are extremely interesting, going to call out a few things not normally mentioned on this one.

    6Z GFS takes the system into Texas near Matagorda on Saturday morning as a cat 1 (although strengthening at landfall), and slowly meanders it around eastern Texas, near Houston on Monday morning, then scoots it along eastward into Louisana and MS dropping incredible amounts of rainfall. This model has only a single landfall and is rain heavy.

    0z Euro takes the system in near the same place on Saturday, as a strong TS or Cat 1 hurricane, stalls it out over land, then back into the Gulf Sunday night where it restrengthens into a hurricane, it then crawls along the texas coast and is just offhshore of houston as a category 2 hurricane, again raining like mad in Texas, likely a cat 2 hurricane at the time, then landfalls near Port Arthur midday on Tuesday. Rainfall estimates are in excess of 20" in many areas of Texas.

    CMC landfalls in brownsville then hooks left into Mexico, seems less likely given current movement trends.

    6z HWRF takes the system in as a 972mb hurricane (cat2), late Friday night, then basically stalls out over land in east Texas.

    There is potential for rapid intensification before landfall with this system due to the position of the upper level low at the time (it's position relative to Harvey would enhance the spin)

    The NAM mesoscal model at the newer 3k resolution shows Harvey approaching the Eastern Texas coast as a category 5 (897mb) hurricane, https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...=0&ypos=342

    Although the NAM is not to be used as an intensity model and not a good tropical model, it is picking up the possibility that rapid intensification could happen.

    In short from rainmaker to potentially major hurricane somewhere in Texas, slow moving (either on or offshore) would bring in crazy amounts of rain, and we hope it remains disorganized enough to not rapidly intensify before landfall. But those in Texas absolutely should be watching it, and for signs of strengthening, if RI were to happen there would not be much warning for it.

    One good bit of news, most of the usual intensity models keeps the system below hurricane strength over the next 5 days. So the rainfall event is more likely than not, but the potential for intensification is there."
     
  3. DonQ

    DonQ Well-Known Member

    Oct 23, 2014
    Tanker surfing is going off the chizzarts!
     
  4. natkitchen

    natkitchen Well-Known Member

    765
    Mar 29, 2011
    Was hoping to hit it up Friday but now it looks like it might be blown out.
     
  5. mattinvb

    mattinvb Well-Known Member

    593
    Sep 9, 2014
    that's right b!tches! 8-9 footers here we go!
     
  6. me tard

    me tard Well-Known Member

    119
    Dec 5, 2016
  7. me tard

    me tard Well-Known Member

    119
    Dec 5, 2016
  8. me tard

    me tard Well-Known Member

    119
    Dec 5, 2016
  9. me tard

    me tard Well-Known Member

    119
    Dec 5, 2016
    harvey gonna dump some rain

    look out paulie, natkitchen
     
  10. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Aircraft recon found 984 pressure, and a 16 nautical mile wide closed eye in Harvey. It's deepening quickly and winds will increase shortly after. Expect a hurricane today, and possibly a major hurricane at landfall "--flhurricane.com
     
  11. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
  12. StuckontheGulf

    StuckontheGulf Well-Known Member

    524
    Apr 23, 2012
    Calling for a small ground swell to get here on Sunday but I think it should start tomorrow. Watching closely
     
  13. Panhandler

    Panhandler Well-Known Member

    238
    Oct 27, 2015
    ^ no doubt, looking like it's going to start building tomorrow evening
     
  14. natkitchen

    natkitchen Well-Known Member

    765
    Mar 29, 2011
    Think I'm gonna check out Port Arthur, maybe Holly beach. Pretty sure Galveston is gonna be a washing machine. Updates Paulie??!!
     
  15. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Maybe you should check out Austin??
    Isn't there a river there that could have waves????
     
  16. natkitchen

    natkitchen Well-Known Member

    765
    Mar 29, 2011
    Might just hit the ditch behind my house!
     
  17. StuckontheGulf

    StuckontheGulf Well-Known Member

    524
    Apr 23, 2012
    Some models are indicating it may stay stationary on the Texas coast and then reenter the Gulf traveling towards Louisiana. That would be ideal for us here in WFL but not so ideal for New Orleans.
     
  18. StuckontheGulf

    StuckontheGulf Well-Known Member

    524
    Apr 23, 2012
    Somewhat reminds me of hurricane Juan in 1985. We had solid head high ground swell for 5 days, the best I can ever remember for the Gulf. It hasn't been that good since then lol. QCPxZc2.jpg
     

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