Hellery Vs Donald POLL

Russkie surfer babes in HEELS!

Ok, I'll chill on the Russians. But this is pretty cool.

[video=youtube;NQvAWQ1CUPs]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQvAWQ1CUPs[/video]

 

http://www.surfline.com/video/webisodes/alana-blanchard-bali-with-dimity_141425

 

Got to get my count-up.

 

Hey don't blame me, I've been here longer than you.

 

Hmm, 33 posts...the same age as Hey Zeus at The End.

Coincidence? I tink not, yeah.

Praise be Wayne's name.

 

The fact that Clinton would actually do this in front of the intense media / cameras, indicates just how brazenly unethical the Clintons truly are.

Clinton was 'sporting a mini earbud wired to receive stealth communications from her campaign handlers.

As Clinton was taking questions a 'quiet buzz started circulating in New York law enforcement circles about Hillary's left ear'.

'NYPD sources involved with the NBC forum's security detail' reportedly told True Pundit that the candidate was wearing an 'inductive earpiece'.

The website pointed out that the micro-sized flesh-colored earpieces, like the one it says Clinton was wearing, are 'easily concealed' and have a range of 300 Hz to 4KHz.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...d-TV-commander-chief-forum.html#ixzz4Jiew4KIx

 

Someone asked me...

How has Obama being president adversely affected me personally, specifically? Me, directly.

I've been doing what I do for a livin for 5 years here in Galveston. This is the slowest year yet. Folks don't call my boss to fix up their parking lots unless they have a little extra $$$. If you have that little extra $$$, your apartment complex or shopping center parking areas and driveways have fewer craters and newer paint. If the owners are hangin by a thread, it looks like sh**.

Yes, it's affected me.

But, Paulie... How did Obama do that HIMSELF?

A) His nearly religious assault on the country from day one has filtered down to every nook and cranny of the economy. Call it trickle down stupidnomics.

B) If folks can still blame George Bush for sh** after all these years, why the F*** can't I blame the guy in the White House NOW for what is going on today? I CAN and I DO.

But ya know what? It don't have to even affect me personally, specifically, or directly. For some reason, I still, a little bit, give a flyin fornication about the many, many others who are just totally F***ed.

Orlando Fl comes to mind. While I disagree with the gay lifestyle, I don't think you should be executed for it. My neighbors across the street are two gay dudes. They have treated me with more dignity, care, and respect than almost anyone I've ever met.

Yeah, Obama has affected me, and it's just gonna be chapter 2 with Clinton.

Ok, exhale Paulie.

It's Friday.

Make the most of the day.

 

Wow IBC, what a thorough explanation of post-recession Economics.

Guys, your time is better spent elsewhere. Prez Clinton coming down the pipe, whether you like it or not.

And you know whose fault that is? Not Obama. Not the spend-happy 'left.' The right.

Hillary Clinton will be President and the reason for that is the GOP. (And lunatics!).

The GOP appealed to the lunatic fringe for decades. They wholeheartedly embraced distortion of the truth at a level previously unseen; science-deniers, evolution-deniers, and rabid paranoid pundits like Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh. This got them 8 years of Bush & the house. But it's backfired! They've embraced the lunatic fringe so deeply that a nutjob like the Donald became their candidate. They sold the integrity of their own party for short-term gains, and are now suffering the consequences.

People are so disillusioned and unhappy with Obama that I entirely expected a GOP win in 2016... They could have put a f*cking Saltine cracker on the stage and it would have won them the presidency! Instead they went with a Dorito. And now they are coming apart at the seams.

Most right and center-right people are not stupid. They know that the Donald is full of sh*t, and as much as they hate it, they know Clinton is a safer and more steady choice.

You might not believe me, so take a look at 538, run by the incredibly accurate Nate Silver. It's looking pretty bleak for the Don, and even more bleak for the GOP:

Chances of Winning:
Hillary: 69.5%
Don: 30.5%

As they say at Yankee stadium: SEE YA!

 

Bro, I can totally tell a difference in the way you articulate yourself when compared to Pre-Indo. You seem much less irritable (no offense...I get that way too). I am still feeling the surf trip vibe and it's been 63 dayz.

I agree with part of this....GOP is somewhat schizo. I even think Hillary is going to win. Not excited in the least about it.

I just don't want to be taxed so much that I can't afford my next surf trip

 

You sure about that Bucko? You sure seem confident about this. The polls are horsesh*t and you know it. Don't count your chickens just yet. Just cause you say she's going to win whether we like it or not, doesn't make it true. I like you dude, but if you really believe it's going to be that easy, you're not paying attention. She's got her work cut out for her, Trump isn't going to lay down, he's coming for that ass.

 

I ain't no economist, and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Props to anyone who has managed to not be affected these past few years.

I ain't one of 'em, and I reckon there's lots more like me.

Maybe I'll have to get into the alcohol and lead business.

Yankee may have been right. Those 2 things may be in high demand if we get Pres Clinton.

While I strongly support the right to bear arms, ain't never owned a gun. Shot an M-16 and a 45 in boot camp in 76, but that's it.

The times, they are a changin.

 

Maybe I can work out somethin with GaffCo, LLC Trinidad and Tobago.

Build us a combination Still and Bullet makin contraption.

Moonshine and hollow pernts.

Solar powered and sh**.

Off the grid. F*** the grid.

Paging Mr Gaffer?

Can ya help a feller out here?

 

It's not horseheet DPS. It's statistics, and it's based on math, and math don't lie. 2+2=4, no matter how much someone wants it to be 3 or 5.

I took a few classes in this as electives back in the day when I was in college. Figured since I was paying for it I might as well learn all I can, and didn't see much use in learning basket weaving. The math is solid, and the methods they use (cluster sampling, etc.) are solid and have been time tested and proven. And the larger the sample, the more accurate it gets. Presidential polls generate very large data sets, so they are usually the most accurate at all. Now there are plenty of BS "polls' out there, like "3 out of 5 Americans love Kanye!" but these are crap. One of the key things to look for is the margin of error, i.e. the +/-. If a candidate is trailing by 10 pts and the margin of error is =/- 3 pts, it's a done deal.

There are some caveats of course, the sampling has to be done correctly, the math, etc. But the companies that BOTH sides rely on for polling data make their $$$ over being highly accurate and their data integrity. If they fark it up, they don't get paid the next time an election comes around. So they spend an enormous amount of time and resources on getting it right.

Now, there are "polls" out that look like they are legit but are actually funded by pro-left or pro-right sources, but the people in the know are aware of this and they get discounted, or more often, adjusted since the legit companies have figured out over the years just how off they are. The strategists in both parties don't use these polls when they are figuring out where to spend cash, as they don't want to waste $$ in states where they don't have a legit change.

In addition to that, there are websites that do an aggregate of all the legit polls, post all of them, and then work out the math that gives them an even better idea of what the odds are.

To twist your brain a bit though, each side sometimes deliberately skews polls to make it look like the other side is doing better than they are, particularly if it's a close race. Why? To get people off their arses and vote. The "news" outlets like CNN and FOX do they same thing. CNN wants to scare the Hillary supporters into thinking Trump is going to win, so they'll go vote instead of going and getting their beard shaped. And FOX wants to their crowd to think that Trump has a chance so they'll get out and vote instead of going mud boggin'. And most important of all, it gets them clicks, and clicks = $$$.

But in the end, its math, and 2+2 is still 4. Trump does have a chance, but it's a slim one. Of course anything can happen tomorrow. Maybe Hillary will go off the deep end, put on a burka and go try to take congress hostage. But at this point, it's her election to lose, whether you and I like it or not.

Plus don't forget about the ol' crap show called the electoral college. Straight up nationwide polls don't mean a thing, it's who's winning each state. A candidate can lose the popular vote and still win the election. Yeah, I know, its crap, but that's a whole ‘nother topic.

 

Dang, Mr Wookie.

I had no idear you was so into cypherin.

Like the definition of e and sh**

lim (1 + 1/n)^n as n approaches infinity and whoaaa

<head spinnin like Beetlejuice>

Hate it when that happens!

Leave the Poles outa this.

Lech Walesa was cool with me.

 

Tlok laying down some Arithmetic!

The map is jacked for Trump but it does seem that he is making some progress. There are a few states that will allow Hillary to win convincingly (PA, VA, NC) but if Trumpmeister does well in these states and the stars align it could happen.

I really can't see Hillary losing....the system is rigged

 

You eluded to the manipulation of the results yourself, therefore they can't be trusted.

You know, nobody has asked me about who i'm voting for, other than the SI Poll we all participated on here. But in the real world? How many others haven't been asked? How many of you have participated in a poll? How many have not?

It's a dog and pony show to do exactly what you said, manipulate voters. Don't you see the flaw in that system? A true poll should be manipulation free, period.

 

Everyone says the system is rigged and the media is pushing for Hilary and crushing Trump...

But it seems the media has been turning on her.
She is down (for good reason) over the last few weeks and it's all because of the email stuff that's constantly on the news.
Trump is up recently because of that, not because anything he's done (except saying less ridiculous sh!t). I'm sure that was the conversation when he hired the new campaign staff. I bet they said "all you have to do is SHUT THE FU*K UP for a few weeks and you'll be back in this thing.

We'll really see how trained they have him during the first debate. If he doesn't blow it with dumb comments he could keep gaining. She does not seem comfortable talking about her fu*k ups live, so she could really have a hard time.

I'm sure Bill is so frustrated. I bet he says (in Bill voice) "what the fu*k is wrong with you? How can you NOT be able to get on camera and lie to America convincingly? It's so god damn easy"

 

It is kind of funny though. When Hilary is winning the pols are BS and rigged. When Don is winning he can't bring it up enough. He's all "I'm winning so big. Huge. Look at the polls"

 

Lol good one IBC. I like them Poles too, poor guys just happen to live in nice open war making country, so for eons everyone like to come fight it out in their front yard.

In Marduk I trust, all others bring data.

I'm down with that island and still making. And catapults. Gotta have a catapult. Just b\c their cool.

 

Surfin Poles

[video=youtube;J0EFK97VivE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0EFK97VivE[/video]