I don't know. but im guessing the time between the last update of the day and the first one the next day is pretty far apart. A lot can happen overnight with a short period swell and local wind.
maybe im wrong, but swell direction is ENE, so that would pretty much sweep past LI no, depending on where you are? Eastern LI might pickup some swell but Lincoln and Roackaways wouldn't?
Yeah theres swell out there even a small craft advisory its dead east though going right by us I've noticed si always over estimates wave heights for east swells on li no biggie the other site had it right but always check the wave direction on si.
I think it pulls from various sources. I think it's a combo of variable components like NOAA forecasts, local wind forecasts, and buoy readings. If you can extrapolate what you need from those three sources you get a proper surf forecast if it is applied to your static components or constants such as topography and bathimetry. Does that make sense?
That, and you can also click the buoy at the top of the page for your break and see what it's doing real time.
Back to original posted question, who says SI does even work?? Maybe it is a bunch of hokey pokey?? Mumbo Jumbo?? Caca laka??
Nah man, it works pretty well. I notice sometimes it gets crappy and not reliable, i'd say 60% of the time it works 90% of the time.
I too assumed the models were reading swells going the *wrong* way, but slap my mama, a lil chest high swell showed up in NH this afternoon. If it wasn't 19 degrees I'd a gone out. Moral is, blindly trust the models in all instances, they are the teat of life upon which we suckle.
That's what I usually do DP. I just glance at the SI forecast, just to get an easy to read idea of what MIGHT be going on. But then I look at the buoy and all that other lovey data in real time when making decisions in the AM. That's when I realized something was up (or not up I should say. HA!) today. I got to say, usually SI is pretty close. Not perfect by any means, and I don't expect it to be. But today was the furthest I ever saw it off. Hence my curiosity.
I hear ya dude, and I agree, normally it's pretty dead on, but occasionally it doesn't materialize to what it looks like it's going to be, other times it will pleasantly surprise you. Look at it like this, at least there is still some sort of excitement getting to the beach to find out if it's good or not, kinda like in the ole days before cams and surf predictin websites.
Barry there was a fun little longboard wave at the wall today. Around 11-2. Maybe waiste high with + sets. Kids were grovelin on shortboards too, one lil ****er even did a decent air with a grabie dealie and all.
I saw it. It was small, short period wave. Given the air temps, it was not worth it for me. However, we may have a nice swell coming up this weekend??
I was just dropping a Ron Burgundy reference. I think SI within 3 days notice is like 75% accurate. that ain't too bad when you're predicting God's handy work.