wind flow from high to low pressure so if the low is to our south then thats why we have north winds and north swell typically after systems pass off our coast the swell swings around as the low moves off to the NE. Thats why we have south swells following hurricanes and such
There so many models and if you look at the hurricane tab at the top you can click on ida and display the forecast models. none of those models have any consistancy. Consistant models = better chance of predictability....The models have the storm going every direction so like everyone said it is really hard to tell
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/ww3_global_sw12_all.html looks like something is coming up the coast and will meet Ida and then develop into a noreaster? Anyway, I've never seen the fnmoc look that big for that long.
these reports alays start ou t real big but usally end up head to a little bit ova head. even now its been going down. i checked the repots yesterday an it said 21ft its already down to 18 i think. so we'll see what happens.
If Ida's forcasts are true, and do happen, there will be a 20 ft wave out at the delaware bay bouy. Also Victory at sea conditions. Most beaches will be seeing overhead+ washed out conditions as far as the eye can see East. The conditions all depend on what direction your local beach faces to hold that NE Wind.
there is a disturbance coming from the west that is supposed to enhance the effects of ida for the next 24hours. then high pressure sitting off the coast of south carolina will try and shear apart whats left of the low but depending on the 3rd element coming from the north west conditions for a "Perfect Storm" could present themselves.... It does not look like this will happen and it looks more like we will be having victory at sea like cleanandgreen says with strong NE winds...choose your spot wisely hope it turns into something at least overhead...
Dude,i dont think this is from ida at all. It is an open ocean low that develops. Look at the hurricane wave model. Ida will prob die out over florida. Either way well get some waves. Itll be good whenever the wind switches. The map shows a huge ass fetch pointin right at us.
thats exactly what ive been thinking. if florida is south of us and ida is coming from the south, then why isnt the wave map reading sse/s long period swell. i think its a big low pressure system mixing with some good sized swell. i doubt it will be anything like Bill though with 6-10 foot closeouts
you guys are sadly mistaken.....do some research on weather models ive already posted the link in this thread.....maybe an administator can enlighten us on what the swell is coming from but its def ida boys
ya, mooseknuckle is spot on - it appears Ida is going to continue passing over land, even as wind shear increases to 50 mph and weakens it to a low that will pass out over into the Atlantic and start moving north along the coast. if that happens it will definitely gain strength over the Atlantic again. it also appears that the stationary front over the mid-US/NE is going to move out leaving high pressure in its wake, which will cause those really strong NE winds, similar to a nor'easter. this is all based on long term models, which means it could still not happen as predicted, but most of the models put Ida remnants going out into the atlantic eventually. should be a lot like a nor'easter. http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp
actually it looks like that stationary low over the mid-us right now is going to combine with the low that Ida becomes, creating a really strong low and a big pressure gradient! So, ya, 20 - 30 mph NE winds sounds spot on for thursday on
also the high pressure off the canadian maritime will cause the system to hopefully stall off shore pumping us up
101 on IDA: Reminants of IDA is moving north, to northeast, to finally east the next day or so. The actual low pressure system itself stays intact and remerges off the georgia coast pushed off by the upcoming cold front. The warm air ahead of the front (SE winds) combinded with the tropical moisture still associated with IDA will slowly move generally NE towards Nova Scotia, causing mucho fetch for the entire east coast. If the low is far off the coast enough the N-NNW tailwinds behind could be more offshore at some spots. Hence closer the storm, more N-NE winds closer to the coast. This all depends on timing of the cold front....some models have IDA almost stalling off OBX for a few days. Only time will tell... At the same time, a wave north of puerto rico is showing some nice fetch, but any swell will be underneath the major storm's effects(IDA). Either way, this is an east coast swell event you do not want to miss! Wait for the winds! Hope my 2 cents informs some, from my experience at least, hope it helps. Micah, looks like some need a video forcast!Ha
Not to jinx it - but it's sure nice to have a thread with intelligent people who have some idea about what they're discussing. It seem's to me winds wont be offshore for most of the event around MD/DE. It'll definitely be worth a 6 hour drive to find some favorable winds and rock bottoms.
Amen, good thread, let's just hope the water temp readings hold true so no one freezes their tosies cause I might be hitting a long Island early and it's worth the toll money for the right winds. Five degree difference from Jersey though?
most likely pretty chilly. i'm just on the border to switch over to 5mil booties and gloves (i like being toasty) and im in jersey. so i'd bring the extra rubber
