Hyperactive tropics 2017

Discussion in 'All Discussions' started by Betty, Sep 23, 2017.

  1. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    This is from flhurricane.com and I found it interesting.
    "While a technical La Niña for the coming fall and winter is not a sure bet (forecast is about a 55-60% chance), even the cooler bias is useful in forecasting activity trends in the Atlantic basin for at least the rest of this year.

    ENSO neutral conditions actually tend to be even somewhat more favorable for big-time banner years (2005, 2017, etc.) overall, but La Niña is very supportive of active to hyperactive Atlantic seasons.

    Speaking just about the months of October, Octobers during La Niñas are usually about 50% more active than neutral - and October is right around the corner.

    A few other things La Niñas can usually be counted on for: Increasing odds of sub-tropical cyclone formation, many of which go on to become fully tropical. Also, lowering of shear over the Caribbean, thus helping cook up and fuel deeply warm-cored tropical cyclones there.

    This lowering of shear over the Caribbean heading into the back-half of this already hyperactive 2017 season raises some alarm bells, especially for the Yucatan, Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas, Georgia, the Carolinas, and Bermuda. Many late-season tropical cyclones that begin in the Caribbean go on to impact these areas. (See image below)

    Dr. Ryan Truchelut recently touched on all this with a good article in the Tallahassee Democrat"
     
  2. LongIslandBro

    LongIslandBro Well-Known Member

    317
    Jul 21, 2017
    Betty,
    You are my internet crush.
    September has been EPIC on Long Island!
    Mark
     

  3. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    I will say that this year the NHC did a pretty great job forecasting the direction, the cones, speed etc of all the hurricanes, giving most population fair enough warnings to get out of the way. I cannot recall another year they were so accurate. Perfect?? No, but way better than prior years.
    Keep in mind, however, that it is solely the observation/opinion of one person (me) watching it from afar.

    Hope all my childhood friends and schoolmates in PR are well.
     
  4. natkitchen

    natkitchen Well-Known Member

    765
    Mar 29, 2011
    .

    They actually talked about Harvey for over a week before it happened. I think most people just didn't think it would be that bad. I agree, they have been on their game.