SUNDAY 09/09 FAIR TO GOOD SURF: 4-6 ft shoulder high to 1 ft overhead with the occ. 7 ft MONDAY 09/10 FAIR SURF: 6-8 ft head high + to 3 ft overhead with the occ. 9 ft Swell info is saying 3' for Sunday.
I think its been undercalled all swell by swellinfo and over called all swell by surfline. Im settling for right in the middle
Agree with surfing wasteland. If Surfline's right... there'll be approx ten breaks in Jersey that can handle the swell and not close out.
Surfline had a forecast for Rhode Island this morning of Double Overhead for Monday. They downgraded their forecast this afternoon to a couple feet overhead. This system is east of Bermuda and it's closest approach while still sending swell our way is over 800 miles and by then it will start moving and not sit stationary. And it's barely a cat 1. So I personally think it's being significantly over called by surfline. Also, MSW(who usually hypes swells!) is not forecasting anything like Surfline has and has a similiar forecast to swellinfo.
I agree, the Swellinfo model has been under calling the swell a bit... I've been tortuously looking into possible sources of errors to apply corrections to the model for future hurricane scenarios. I also agree that Surfline has been mostly overcalling.
Swellinfo really hasn't been that far off. I mean it's a distant system so you're go to get some odd sets that are unusually above the significant wave height. You can't forecast that. Just have to the forecast for the 1/3 highest of waves.
The winds matter as much, or more, than the swell. Esp in VA BEE. It might be 4-5 ft but if that friggin N wind is crankin' at anything in /over 12-15 knots, it's done. I check the usual suspects, but always look at www.windguru.com too. One man's humble experience based upon being humbled many, many times.
Surfline is notorious for giving ****ty forecasts for the EC. Swellinfo has been maybe 1ft undercalling this swell but really not too far off. As someone said earlier, there is a difference between 3ft waves and the size of the sets. Tides, local winds and bathymetry always play a part in these long period swells. Best way to tell is to wake up early, run down to the beach to get a real look at the waves.
i agree.best way to know for sure is to head on out to the beach.surfline usually underscores swells,itll say 1-2ft poor conditions and itll be clean head high barrels so...the forecast changes constantly so u just have to get lucky!
