As of 2:00 am EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 ... A tropical wave located about 1600 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance continues to show signs of organization, and some additional development is possible during the next couple of days before conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected to continue moving toward the west at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Flhurricane yesterday: "This wave is bucking climatology, but 2017 so far suggests potential for an above-average season. Since its exit from western Africa, 92L has been an especially healthy wave. Initially, models mostly wanted to wash it out, but a few kept it at a low enough latitude, combined with enough moisture and spin, to take advantage of the favorable shear environment, which is verifying. A reasonably moist envelope, along with this favorable shear, and just-enough Coriolis effect, should continue to allow this very well organized wave to cook, baring something not yet known. Data is sparse in the central Atlantic, and it is possible that a still-unforeseen factor limits or even ends development, which may be why the NHC is, as of this reply, still 'only' giving it 40%, when it has the look of an Invest closer to double that. 92L is not a large system, and the potential for somewhat rapid up and down fluctuations of intensity will be likely. The incipient cyclone may well hit a wall of higher shear values and drier air sometime next week, but this might not happen until after crossing the Lesser Antilles. Consequently, the risk of an unusually early strong tropical storm affecting these islands is notable. There have only been two instances of a named storm forming during the month of June prior to reaching the Lesser Antilles: Tropical Storm Ana (1979), and the 1933 Trinidad Hurricane (1933). Both 1933 and 1979 went on to become active to hyperactive seasons. "
From flhurricane just now: " The 18Z model runs are in, 18Z GFS rips some energy off the larger system and spews it off to the north, with a lot of rain on the eastern side, going over Florida, the strongest part of the energy winds up near Panama City Beach on Thursday evening. With the center detaching and remaining a bit over the Gulf of Mexico. The Panhandle and Northern Florida get the majority of the rain. The disorganized center eventually makes it over the Panhandle late on Wednesday. The GFS Para takes the system and gets it going in the Eastern Gulf with rain across all of Florida and forms a tight center which becomes a hurricane, landfalling near Panama City Beach on Tuesday evening. Then races through Georgia and South Carolina. Another low develops in the Bay of Campeche and winds up just south of TX/Mexico border on Thursday/Friday. The 12Z Euro shifts the system west, with a possible Depression/TS just south of the TX/Mexico border on Thursday. This is a slight shift north from earlier Euro runs. Although the Euro is the more likely scenario, we can't discount the idea that a system shoots off and forms like the GFS models suggest. "
As of 2:00 pm EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 ... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave about 800 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands have become a little better organized since yesterday. Some additional development of this system is possible during the next couple of days before environmental conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. This system is forecast to move to the west-northwest at near 20 mph toward the Windward Islands and northeastern South America during the next two days, and interests in these areas should monitor its progress. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to spread over portions of the Windward Islands Monday night and Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Monday, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Neither one of those storms will affect us at all, unless we travel to a storm target area. But it is nice to see the Atlantic basin firing up. I just hope for one good hurricane this year to sit off the coast of New England, for 5 days, Monday thru Friday in late September or October, when everyone has to work or be in school.!!!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/182056.shtml? Looks like it will become a tropical storm. In the Atlantic basin. In June.
Bret continues to have a fairly well-organized appearance on satellite imagery, but the presentation on radar from Trinidad and Venezuela is not so impressive, with a lack of well-defined banding features. The structure of the cyclone continues to be characterized by a northward tilt of the vortex with height, so the center is estimated to be located near the southern side of the CDO. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, which is the mean of Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB. The intensity forecast reasoning remains about the same as before. No significant short-term strengthening seems likely while the circulation interacts with Venezuela today. In 24 hours or so, a weakening trend should commence due to strong south-southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough over the Caribbean Sea. The global models continue to be in good agreement that the system will dissipate over the west-central Caribbean in 2-3 days. The official intensity forecast is near or slightly above the intensity model consensus, IVCN. The forward motion has slowed just a bit from yesterday and is now around 290/18 kt. There continues to be little change to the track forecast philosophy. The flow on the southern side of a well-defined mid-level subtropical ridge should steer the cyclone on a west-northwestward to westward track for the next couple of days. The official track forecast lies between the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions and is close to the model consensus.
So glad you are concerned for my welfare. I love you too. But hey, who knows--I have seen 'canes turn and twist and make it up here under the weirdest of conditions. Have a good day!!
