Flhurricane.com: " A trough of low pressure in the tropical Central Atlantic is now being tracked as Invest 95L. While recent model support has been lukewarm at best, conditions for development are actually starting to appear to be somewhat better than those runs would suggest, and as of the 2AM AST Sat July 16, 2017 TWO, NHC has given this Invest a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 5 days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if necessary."
From NHC: "As of 2:00 pm EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 ... A westward-moving trough of low pressure located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some development of this system before it reaches the Lesser Antilles in two to three days. After that time, less favorable upper-level winds are expected to hinder additional development. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation Chance through 5 days...medium 40 percent."
As of 2:00 am EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 ... A small low pressure system located about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands is moving westward at about 15 mph. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show some signs of organization, and environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some development of this system before it reaches the Lesser Antilles in two to three days. After that time, less favorable upper-level winds are expected to hinder additional development. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
And behind the infest, is Disturbance Two: As of 2:00 am EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 ... An area of disturbed weather has developed several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest over the open Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Flhurricane re Infest 95L: "The Atlantic now has two disturbances being highlighted in the NHC Tropical Weather Update. While not stated explicitly, it is possible that Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories may be issued later today on Invest 95L, and persons with interests in the Lesser Antilles may want to begin preparing for the possibility of heavy weather."
Disturbance 1: 50% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 2:00 pm EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 ... An area of low pressure located about 525 miles east-southeast of Barbados is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization since this morning and the system still appears to lack a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are conducive for some development before the system reaches the Lesser Antilles late Tuesday or early Wednesday. After that time, less favorable upper-level winds are expected to hinder additional development. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate the disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Flhurricane.com: "The advertised DNA of 2017 favors development of named cyclones in the Main Development Region (A 'box' generally thought of as south of 20°N, and from 70°W to 20°W). We are now watching not one but two new disturbances in this region: Invests 95L and another, TBD. As of 1:00PM EDT Monday July 17, recon is approaching Invest 95L, which has been looking more organized than yesterday, despite the appearance of struggling with some nearby dry air, as well as what is probably the diurnal convective minimum. Recon will be looking to see if 95L has developed a well-defined surface circulation and sufficient convective structure to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should consider watching these. Of note, Invest 95L is a bit of a smaller incipient tropical cyclone, and as such, could intensify faster than a larger system would"
Flhurricane.com: "As of 17 July 2017 1700Z, the better global tropical cyclone genesis models are not excited with 95L's prospects, beyond perhaps a flash TD and then washing out into an open wave that tracks into central America and/or the eastern Pacific. This is unsurprising, given that 95L is a smaller system. It is even a bit of a surprise that these larger-scale globals have identified its existence much at all. Alternatively, hurricane-centric models, that tend to initialize on the assumption that there is already something worth looking at, are running pretty hot on 95L, with the HWRF, HWRF-PARA AND HMON-PARA all sending a formidable tropical storm across the Lesser Antilles by mid-week. "
The last one that came in low gave us some much needed wind choppe, which restored my sanity. A temporary fix, but hope is on the way. CHOO CHOO!
Tropical Storm Don As of 0500 PM AST Mon Jul 17 (Advisory # 1) Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 knots; 40 mph Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb Located at: 11.2N 52.6W Movement: west at 15 knots; 17 mph
