Invest has a shot at becoming Wave maker or Dolly-- worth watching

Watching this Invest. It shows promise of a wave maker , and has a shot at becoming Dolly. Am on the fence about it right now.

http://flhurricane.com/sbanimator.php?year=2014&storm=5

Current thinking is, "Global models keep it weak right now, and generally heading west. Climatology and the current general pattern suggest it stays east of the US, but until a system develops, it's hard to say. It is worth watching as well. Really, anything in August-mid October is worth watching.

It will be watched just like 96L was (now Cristobal) to see what the pattern is. One thing about 97L that's different from 96, it doesn't have the influence of "two systems" like the prior one did, and fits the description of an "typical" wave much better. Which we actually haven't had much of in the last two years."

Who picked the name, Dolly? Lame.

 

Here we go. It could be go time for surfers on the Gulf.
This Invest survived:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014



1. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over
the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more favorable
for development on Saturday while the wave moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is forecast to move
across the Yucatan peninsula on Sunday and into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by Monday, where environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent."

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea.
Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive during the
next couple of days, but land interaction will likely limit
significant development while the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development once the
system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

 

Up to 50% probability now once it emerges from the Yucatan peninsula.

 

Trying for three for three here



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and Belize has become a little
better organized over the past few hours. However, land interaction
is expected to limit significant development while the disturbance
moves across the Yucatan peninsula later today and tonight.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

 

Let's see if we can get this guy to go further northeast in the gulf


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located south of Campeche on the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of
organization while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and
development of a tropical depression will be possible when the
center of the disturbance moves over the warm waters of the Bay of
Campeche later today and into Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will
produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern
Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland
Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

NOAA-- looking like Dolly, someone might get waves. So far, it won't be us:

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.