Invest looking good for TS Edouard

And while we watch Edouard form, this little guy is going to cross Florida and enter the gulf. SI shows a little 2-3' bump in Florida next Wednesday. Bigger than what we have had recently


NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The national Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
newly developed Tropical Depression Six, located several hundred
miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.

1. Shower activity associated with a low pressure area near the
northwestern Bahamas has become more concentrated today, and the
circulation of the low has become a little better defined. Some
additional development could occur before upper-level winds become
less conducive tonight. The low is expected to move generally
westward across the southern Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico during the next couple of days. Regardless of
development, this low will bring locally heavy rains to portions of
southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30

 

And, we have TS Eduoard soon to be a hurricane. Should bring a little something to the EC boys.

Still watching this little guy crossing over to the Gulf:


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Edouard, located about a thousand miles west
of the Cape Verde Islands.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity is currently limited in association
with an area of low pressure located about 70 miles east-northeast
of West Palm Beach, Florida. Strong upper-level winds and
interaction with the Florida peninsula will likely inhibit
development of this system today while it moves slowly west-
southwestward across the southern Florida peninsula. Once the low
moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico conditions could become
a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation over the
weekend while the system moves westward at around 10 mph. Regardless
of development, this low will bring locally heavy rains to portions
of southern Florida and the Florida Keys through today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percen

 

NOAA is tracking two in the Gulf, one off Africa coast, and of course Edouard. Here are the three other invests, which can produce waves, and are not yet promising for FAY. Midweek looks good for Edouard around central Florida so get your work excuses lined up:


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located about 1200 miles east of the northern Leeward
Islands.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico about 90
miles west of Naples, Florida, remains poorly organized. Upper-level
winds appear unfavorable for significant development as the system
moves generally westward during the next few days. Nevertheless,
this system will continue to be closely monitored, and an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
low later today, if necessary. Locally heavy rains associated with
the low will continue over portions of southern Florida and the
Florida Keys through today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to show signs
of organization. Some development of this system is possible during
the next day or so before it moves westward or west-northwestward at
around 10 mph into an area unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

3. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has changed little in
organization during the past few hours. However, surface pressures
are low in this area, and some development could occur before the
system moves into eastern Mexico later today. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to
spread over portions of eastern Mexico today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

 

Water is warm, any swell is fun, 2' 3' 4' 5' ...it's all fun. Some super fun WARM waves 7:30-8:30 a.m. Today. Knee to thigh with some occasional bigger, very long delicious longboarding rides. Until the crowd showed up (major crowd of surfers mid mornin) and the waves came down. So fun the Betties staked out a fun swath out there. 84F water temp. Ahhhhhhh!

Wenesday/Thursday might get some swell from Edouard. Don't expect overhead or even head high and you won't be disappointed by what you DO get

 

Checking this out:

"Pouch 34L just pushed off the east African coast and it may well become one of the more interesting system to track this season. At 13/13Z the wave was located at 9N 15W with movement to the west northwest. This is probably the system that the ECMWF puts at 12.5N 46W at 23/00Z which would yield an average motion to the west at 8 knots. The light shear area currently along and west of the West African coast is expected to expand westward and slightly northward over the weekend and into early next week and with SSTs still at 29C, a favorable environment for additional development would be in place. As Edouard eventually pulls north and then northeast, the Atlantic ridge would get re-established and could influence a west to west northwest track for this system of interest.". Flhurricane.com