Is this a joke?

Discussion in 'Southeast' started by ryan stranahan, Nov 13, 2010.

  1. ryan stranahan

    ryan stranahan Member

    Oct 19, 2010
    Ive been watching the forecast for the last week for folly looking foreward to it firing today (saturday) only to wake up at six and check that the swell had almost completley died. I''m pretty new to this site so i was just wondering if someone could help me understand the accuracy of these forecasts.
  2. dsurf25

    dsurf25 New Member

    Sep 1, 2010
    Never trust any forecast a week in advance, for all we know they make it look like its firing so that you go to the site more to check and they get paid for their advertisements. I find this site accurate most of the time the day before only, although this morning it was "supposed to be well overhead and wake up this morn and its only supposed to be chest to head...crazy how a prediction can be 4 feet off a day before.

  3. bfloyd

    bfloyd Well-Known Member

    Apr 28, 2008
    The margin for error is high for sure. But all the forecasters blew this one.. It should be fun mid morning, however wetsand, swellinfo, magicseaweed(not as far off), wavewatch, etc. were 3 ft or more off on this one. It was reading much better conditions til the the reports came flying out this morning and the downgraded it. Thanks for the site, however bad predictions. I could have traveled and prepared for this if I knew this was the case. Big Disappointment... Goes to show checking the surf is the only way.
  4. monkeytrapper

    monkeytrapper New Member

    Feb 9, 2010
  5. HyattB

    HyattB Member

    May 3, 2008
    Dude, wheres my wave?

    Wave's not here MAN
  6. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    I just changed the forecast procedure for this swell as of this morning, which downgraded the forecast for a lot of the Southeast coast.

    There are some issues with the long period swells using the old approach, where it doesn't show the continental shelf influence and too much long period swell makes its way into the coast.

    We are working on a full upgrade to address this issue, but unfortunately it wont be in place for a little while...
  7. bfloyd

    bfloyd Well-Known Member

    Apr 28, 2008
    What is the old approach? There is no question that it is the longer period swell forecasting. The buoys are reading solid numbers, maybe not quite as big, but still solid. How would you adjust or lower the forecast knowing those numbers? I wouldn't even say its a forecast call if you adjust the morning of. I am sure taking into account the sea floor topography could make this very tricky as well as local knowledge for these swells.
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2010
  8. wang

    wang Well-Known Member

    Nov 24, 2007
    Yeah, man. I was flying to Charleston for a wedding and kept an eye on the wave forecast all week. Last night when we flew out, the forecast was head to 1-3' overhead and clean. So, I brought my board. Woke up this morning and have nothing to go burn some calories on before the wedding. I'm bummed and now my fiance' gets to deal with it.
  9. ryan stranahan

    ryan stranahan Member

    Oct 19, 2010
    isle of palms
  10. rlghdude

    rlghdude Well-Known Member

    Aug 19, 2009
    Man if you have been watching this forecast (alone) for the last week, and expecting to drive down to your break and it be "firing" you need to have an epiphany into your surfing reality. This FREE surfing forecast is supposed to AID in your search for decent swell, not dominate it.
  11. Well-Known Member

    May 21, 2006
    North Florida or North Carolina are the only places that really get the big NE near here. It's generally the same wind blown drifty stuff. Ain't no website changin that...Go surf.
  12. ukelelesurf

    ukelelesurf Well-Known Member

    Apr 25, 2007
    This website always overcalls any north origin swell at south/ se facing beaches. Once you realize that you know that you can chop the forecast by 2/3 for this kind of set up. Ex: one foot over head =knee to waste. \Like some other guy said, this site is supposed to hel;p but knowing your own beach is more important. Also, buoyweather had this swell at like 5 ft SE so this isnt the only site that missed
  13. pawley

    pawley Well-Known Member

    Mar 12, 2008
    im so glad that swellinfo tells me where to surf, when to go, and exactly what type of session i will have. cause i cant look at charts, bouy reports, etc and think for myself.
  14. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    the updated forecast approach that is in place now (we should have switched it over earlier in the week) should be much more spot on.

    Once we upgrade to the full solution, it will even better take care of a lot of these biases on the long period swells. What it comes down to is a essentially higher resolution wave model run that will better take into account the continental shelf influence that is so influential for the southeast coast.
  15. wedge1

    wedge1 Well-Known Member

    May 7, 2007
    Quit hating...if it were the 80s 3/4ths of you wouldn't even surf b/c there was no internet, cams, and 8 day forecasts---suck it up and actually check the surf in person or shut the fk up
  16. bfloyd

    bfloyd Well-Known Member

    Apr 28, 2008
    These blogs are funny. Ok, yes you do check the surf. Who the hell doesn't it, esp. with all the cams and reports floating out there, much like on this site. If you surf, you check the surf before you surf. The sole purpose of these sites are a service for surfers, lids, sups and whoever else has an interest in reading surf conditions for those given areas. I for one appreciate the site. However, much of the sites had a bit of a busted swell guys. For this area after surfing for 15-20 something years now, I fully understand how a NE works. I have seen swells come through over a decade ago that would blow some minds who had no idea what the hell a surfboard even was til they say Kelly Slater on Baywatch.. So, the whole local knowledge argument coming from some guys/kids in north and south carolina who have been surfing for 5 or more years is increasingly kooky and a terrible image for surfing period.Now, people need to raise a bit of hell about this. Sure its a service, but after you put the pipe down you will notice the abundance of sponsors that make this site go around all the while pitching ads trying to influence you in some way or another to invest on their product or business. Sure they have to keep the site going somehow, and maybe make a couple $$ on the side, but cry me a river man, this is a business. What happens when you make bad business forecasting or risky decisions, you certainly don't get awarded for it. No one forces an individual to come on here, however it can be very misleading when they are claiming to be a solid surf forecasting site. I notice the admin tends to shift some of the bad calls in forecasting on the models they run through. That is why I ask the methods on how they configure the forecast for those areas. I appreciate the attempt. I am just critical of there have been some blown forecasting on some very skeptical lows that we all know can throw swell for the whole east coast even in the nooks and cranny's. Sure long period doesn't make it in to alot of areas that we all know, but we also know that winter time lows work a little different and have the energy to throw swells in ALOT of places that typically are not that good. We have seen that happen plenty. Weather is always changing and the dynamics behind forecasting has to be very tricky. But keep in mind that the admin put this site out there to make a name as a surfing forecaster to bring in some business. So, it is completely valid to say it was a bad call and there have been several. This certainly was not the only site. I have seen other admins actually apologize, much like the guy on wetsand. He knows what he has riding on his forecasts. Basically, if you forecast and you are off you are going to hear it. You are making a call, hyping the site with merchandise, sponsors, etc, at least make a good call.. I wouldn't really care about a short period wind swell or something. But with a long period mammoth swell, it is highly important so you know where to score. I bet traffic on this site was up alot over the weekend, b/c people come to these sites as it is a combination of all the elements and you can flip through your dictionary of breaks for those conditions. Its almost as if you don't perform well at the key times. So, I am critical of the fact that this has been ineffective at the big moments, as other sites that claim " surf forecasting" and provide a "service" for surfers and want to know how they are computing all data into there forecasting to possibly help some, at least for this area with some local knowledge. I could truly write a novel on this, however I think you get the point. Constructive Criticism boys.. That is what makes business's such as this, much better. Otherwise I applaud the admin for taking a risk in doing this to help surfers. For the lame comment on not checking the buoys, winds. etc. Busch league comment. You can have solid numbers reading straight offshore( 100 miles) at the buoys and a the perfect angled swell at times and it will be shin high in some areas. We have all seen this quite a bit around here, at the same time we have seen longer period fill in with solid conditions... We all know how fickle this coast is.. Putting yourself out there as a forecaster on the east coast sets yourself up for some criticism and praise. Now you can pick the pipe back up.
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2010
  17. whitewater

    whitewater Well-Known Member

    Feb 25, 2010
    well said floyd, well said
  18. imperial

    imperial Well-Known Member

    Jun 2, 2008
    Swell info, wetsand, magic seaweed, surfline can't be right 100% of the time. They are doing us surfers a great service of giving us a heads up when decent swell is on the way. We know living on the east coast is a fickle place and when we get decent waves we are very thankful. Don't be a player hater and get mad when the forecasters miss a call. Wrightsville was still chest to overhead and fun, fun, fun, Saturday AND Sunday. THANKS SWELL INFO FOR YOUR SERVICES!!!!!

    Pura Vida!!!!!!!!!!!!
  19. pawley

    pawley Well-Known Member

    Mar 12, 2008
    agreed floyd!
    we have surfed this area about the same amount (omg 20+ years) of years and have put the same amount of time into scoping breaks and taking notes. i def remember some of those mid winter noreasters back in the early to mid 90's. doesnt seem like we get them as frequent these days. but thats one of the more enjoyable reasons to be an east coast surfer. finding the right conditions for the right spots takes time and is not a casual hobby. but man it feels good to find that right wave with the right winds, and you know most just followed the green on this site like sheep. ive scored great waves and of course been skunked. i didnt feel confident enough in this swell to travel but kinda wish i did after seeing some pretty fun waves in snc and hatty. (and getting nada at home)
  20. oceantherapy

    oceantherapy Active Member

    Aug 20, 2010
    Well said bfloyd! (along with yankee last week)...could not agree more!

    I wish someone would explain the cont shelf theory for the east coast that keeps getting mentioned. At the shelf drop off it ranges from 25-80 feet water depth to shore depending on location. The shoals also play a part.